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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BYON Adrian	-	-	-	5%	24%	44%	26%
2	ZHAO Zhiyu (Yogi)	-	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
3	BYON Julian	-	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
3	SOWERS Samuel	-	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	17%
5	CHOW William T.	-	-	2%	12%	30%	38%	18%
6	KOVALEV Daniil N.	-	-	1%	8%	27%	43%	22%
7	GILSHTEYN Jacob	-	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
8	CHAN Aidan	-	1%	8%	30%	40%	19%	3%
9	YAN Kevin	-	-	1%	7%	27%	44%	22%
10	ROSS Dash S.	2%	15%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
11	GIANETTO Ethan K.	-	2%	12%	29%	34%	18%	4%
12	WANG HongXi	-	3%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
13	DUDNICK Christian	-	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	24%
14	LI AYDEN	-	4%	16%	33%	31%	14%	2%
15	CONTRACTOR Cyrus	-	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
16	LI linze	-	2%	12%	29%	35%	19%	4%
17	TUNG Ryan	-	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%
18	HERRERA aragon	-	1%	6%	23%	38%	27%	6%
19	NGO Maximus	-	1%	6%	21%	35%	29%	9%
20	KOVACHEV Martin	2%	13%	31%	32%	17%	4%	-
20	ROSALES Vincent	8%	34%	37%	17%	4%	-	-
22	WEINBERG Harry	-	2%	17%	39%	31%	9%	1%
23	COBIAN Richard	3%	18%	34%	30%	13%	3%	-
24	LISKOVETS Alec	-	6%	34%	39%	17%	3%	-
25	WONG Lucas	-	4%	18%	35%	31%	11%	1%
26	LEIGH Edward	3%	18%	36%	30%	12%	2%	-
27	SINGHAL Armaan	16%	37%	31%	12%	3%	-	-
28	CHEN Lohen	1%	8%	25%	35%	23%	7%	1%
29	WANG Tiger	-	4%	18%	35%	30%	11%	1%
30	LEE Brian	18%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
31	HENRY Ethan	48%	39%	11%	2%	-	-	-
32	POLEYUMPTEWA Connor	5%	23%	36%	25%	9%	1%	-
33	YU Casey	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	5%	-
34	RONG Jasper	1%	10%	30%	35%	19%	4%	-
35	SILVA Joaquin	8%	31%	37%	19%	5%	-	-
36	ASPIRAS Piers	43%	47%	9%	1%	-	-	-
37	HONG Aidan	16%	37%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
38	GONZALEZ Mark	42%	41%	14%	2%	-	-	-
38	HSIEH Christian	34%	41%	20%	5%	1%	-	-
40	MISHRA Aadi	< 1%	4%	17%	32%	30%	13%	2%
41	CHAN Elliott	20%	40%	28%	9%	2%	-	-
41	LANSFORD Drew	37%	52%	11%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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