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Queen City Cup

Y-14 Men's Foil

Saturday, March 9, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Bethany School - Cincinnati, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KUE Temujin	-	1%	11%	33%	39%	16%
2	LU Alex	-	-	-	6%	35%	58%
3	ZHAO Nathan	-	-	-	5%	29%	66%
3	OZAWA Taishi	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	26%
5	FANG Haoyu	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	18%
6	HICKEY Connor	-	-	4%	21%	44%	31%
7	DESERANNO Leander	-	-	-	5%	30%	64%
8	FRASER Rhys	1%	10%	29%	38%	20%	2%
9	WANG Caleb	-	6%	26%	40%	23%	4%
10	GE Felix Fei	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
11	LATORRE Leonardo	-	1%	10%	35%	43%	11%
12	HONG Derek	-	11%	34%	36%	16%	2%
13	WENGER Rowan	2%	14%	35%	35%	13%	1%
14	ZMUDA Aiden	2%	17%	37%	32%	11%	1%
15	TAN Charlie	-	2%	12%	34%	39%	14%
16	ZHAO Jason	4%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%
17	TURNER Jackson	1%	7%	27%	43%	20%	2%
18	CHEN Varick	5%	24%	39%	25%	6%	-
19	GOMEZ Leo	29%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
20	MCCONKEY Tristan	6%	26%	38%	23%	6%	1%
21	MOLDOVEANU Roman	2%	18%	37%	32%	11%	1%
22	COOK Grant	1%	9%	29%	39%	21%	2%
23	KAGAN Noah	2%	13%	33%	36%	15%	1%
24	PAYNE Lynas	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
25	BILLIET Greyson	17%	41%	32%	9%	1%	-
26	BESSELMAN Noah	-	3%	19%	38%	31%	9%
27	DEPP Edward	2%	13%	32%	35%	15%	2%
28	WENGER Liam	7%	29%	38%	21%	5%	-
29	LIM-SEIWERT Tristan	23%	45%	25%	6%	1%	-
30	EDWARDS Connor	3%	34%	41%	19%	4%	-
31	CALESHU Bauer	14%	39%	35%	11%	1%	-
32	MCGRATH Milo	15%	37%	33%	12%	2%	-
33	TAGORE Ayansh	84%	15%	1%	-	-	-
34	FRASER Alistair	43%	40%	14%	2%	-	-
35	TAGORE Reyansh	18%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-
35	GENOVESE Isaac	29%	45%	22%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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