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Senior Mixed Foil

Saturday, March 9, 2024 at 9:00 AM

Youth Enrichment League Fencing Club - Hopkins, MN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SEZER Kaya	-	-	-	-	1%	30%	69%
2	HOWLAND Jonas	-	3%	17%	38%	33%	8%	-
3	OLSON Emerson	-	-	-	2%	19%	71%	8%
3	MCKINLEY Luke	1%	23%	43%	28%	6%
5	FLANAGAN James P	-	-	-	3%	20%	47%	30%
6	CROOM Tucker	-	-	-	1%	11%	38%	50%
7	LOCKWOOD Jacob	1%	22%	44%	27%	5%
8	KANG Marian	4%	21%	40%	29%	6%	-
9	GIEBLER Lucas	-	5%	27%	45%	22%
10	MICKELSON Jacob P.	-	-	-	-	-	11%	89%
11	CAPERS Hunter	1%	10%	28%	35%	21%	5%	-
12	ZINSER James	3%	27%	40%	23%	6%	1%	-
13	TRAN Allex	8%	36%	40%	15%	1%	-
14	IBARRA Alejandro	14%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-	-
15	HASHMI Mushaf	1%	8%	29%	40%	21%	2%	-
16	FEEHAN Conor	54%	37%	8%	1%	-	-	-
17	WILKINS Mateo	-	-	-	4%	28%	67%
18	RUBY Asher	3%	20%	38%	30%	9%	-	-
19	CHO Mina	1%	8%	30%	41%	18%	2%
20	SETHRE Traci	1%	8%	27%	37%	21%	5%	-
21	TOEWS Jackson	-	3%	14%	32%	35%	15%	1%
22	FADLIA Murad	-	-	4%	21%	40%	30%	5%
23	JARCHO Beckett	-	7%	30%	43%	20%
24	JERNEY Agustina	4%	23%	39%	27%	7%	-	-
25	STONE Colleen	-	2%	12%	32%	35%	16%	3%
26	MORAN William	-	1%	7%	21%	36%	28%	7%
27	PHONPRASANSACK Grayson	3%	18%	39%	30%	10%	1%	-
28	DEBLAERE Caecie	1%	11%	30%	37%	18%	3%	-
28	HOPKINS Dylan	8%	29%	37%	20%	5%	-	-
30	CLIPPARD Erik	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%	-
31	RIES Celina	26%	44%	24%	5%	-	-	-
32	OSTFIELD Mati	11%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
33	MOGENSEN Ezra	26%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-
34	NEAS Derek	-	7%	28%	41%	22%	2%	-
35	HICKNER Gabe	89%	10%	-	-	-
36	LEGGETT Emilia	2%	13%	30%	32%	17%	4%	-
37	WATSON Brody	< 1%	7%	32%	43%	16%	1%
38	OBRIEN George	2%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%	-
39	FOLDENAUR Will	1%	33%	45%	18%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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