NEUSFA Tom Gorman Beanpot Open

Senior Women's Épée

Sunday, March 10, 2024 at 8:30 AM

Boston Fencing Club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SPRINGER Sierra	-	-	-	-	3%	30%	66%
2	HAFEEZ Hiba	-	-	1%	6%	25%	44%	24%
3	HAFEEZ Hania	-	-	-	1%	10%	41%	48%
3	MONOVA Lilyana	-	-	4%	22%	51%	21%	2%
5	LI Fei	-	-	1%	6%	27%	48%	18%
6	WOLF Lisa A.	-	-	1%	6%	25%	44%	24%
7	CAMPBELL Anahit M.	-	-	-	4%	25%	55%	16%
8	SONG Angela	-	-	-	1%	12%	48%	39%
9	PRIHODKO Nina	-	1%	10%	31%	38%	17%	2%
9	FENG ge	-	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	22%
11	DAGLI Saira Veronica	20%	43%	29%	7%	1%	< 1%	-
12	ZHOU Zhixiao	-	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	23%
13	WILLIAMSON Beatrix	1%	8%	30%	38%	19%	3%	-
14	SZALA-KROTKOV Kirsten A.	2%	28%	41%	23%	6%	1%	-
15	GIELEGHEM Klaire	-	7%	28%	39%	21%	4%	-
16	TRAN Helena	-	3%	18%	38%	30%	10%	1%
17	LI Suri	-	1%	6%	24%	40%	25%	5%
18	ERSHOVA Anastasia	-	3%	17%	39%	33%	7%	-
19	WESER Veronica U.	-	-	-	1%	15%	50%	34%
20	CONNOLLY Natasha	2%	19%	39%	30%	9%	1%	-
21	WANG Sabrina	-	5%	21%	38%	29%	7%	1%
22	JENSEN MJ	1%	10%	33%	38%	16%	2%	-
23	BOWLING Lillian	2%	17%	38%	32%	10%	1%	-
24	SUMMERER Jordan	63%	31%	5%	-	-	-	-
25	TIBBETTS Lily	11%	36%	38%	14%	1%	-	-
26	CHARBONNEAU Naomi	3%	20%	39%	29%	9%	1%	-
27	PAN Angela	1%	20%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-
28	PHUONG Elaine	11%	40%	35%	12%	2%	-	-
29	NGUYEN Celena	2%	18%	38%	31%	10%	1%	-
30	WILLIAMSON Astrid	17%	41%	32%	9%	1%	-	-
31	AGIREDDY Vanya	2%	14%	37%	38%	9%	1%	-
32	ERIKSEN Kate	54%	37%	8%	1%	-	-	-
33	DIOH Nicole	62%	32%	6%	-	-	-	-
34	KELLY Diane A.	5%	31%	41%	20%	4%	-	-
35	SHEAHAN Emma	81%	17%	1%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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