Queen City Cup

Y-12 Women's Foil

Sunday, March 10, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Bethany School - Cincinnati, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MUMMANENI Samyuta	-	-	-	1%	6%	33%	60%
2	PUTHOFF Olivia	-	-	1%	6%	23%	41%	29%
3	BOIKE Lucille	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
3	KOU Elisha	-	3%	17%	38%	33%	9%
5	HUANG Natalie	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	15%
6	SAMALA Reese	-	5%	20%	37%	29%	8%
7	RIVERA Leahy	1%	5%	19%	33%	29%	12%	2%
8	MARTIN Sloan	-	-	3%	19%	43%	35%
9	HOROWITZ Shuli	-	-	1%	9%	36%	53%
10	SHUSTA Lily	-	1%	7%	25%	40%	24%	3%
11	FRASER Morgan	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
12	HUFFMAN Yunia	2%	13%	34%	35%	15%	2%
13	IANNI Isabel	-	1%	7%	27%	40%	23%	3%
14	ZHANG Selina	1%	12%	33%	36%	16%	2%
15	YANG Olivia	-	4%	20%	39%	30%	7%
16	JEANBAPTISTE Lauren	1%	12%	31%	35%	18%	3%
17	CLEMMER-BECHT Elise	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-
18	ZOLDAN Nolabelle	-	3%	18%	37%	31%	10%	1%
19	CLYMER Marlo	-	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	5%
20	WELTER Gemma	1%	11%	30%	37%	19%	3%
21	KAGAN Natalie	4%	28%	41%	22%	5%	-
22	BELL Blake	6%	25%	36%	25%	7%	1%
23	CHAVEZ Beatrix	35%	42%	19%	4%	-	-
24	SUN Nicole	1%	8%	24%	33%	24%	8%	1%
25	CULLIVAN Elise	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%	-
26	LEE Eun-Hae	21%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
27	LALONDE Beatrice	3%	19%	39%	29%	9%	1%	-
28	LIN Athena	7%	30%	38%	20%	5%	-
29	YARLAGADDA Smaya	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
30	MADABHUSHI Diya	1%	18%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-
31	LIU Sophia	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-
32	FAROOQI Eliora	7%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
33	REDEMANN Reagan	3%	25%	41%	24%	6%	-
34	BENMOUSSA Dahlia	-	6%	25%	38%	24%	5%
35	GONG Maggie	27%	45%	23%	5%	-	-	-
36	LIN Claire	35%	42%	19%	4%	-	-
37	LIN Megan	62%	32%	6%	-	-	-
38	CHEN Emma	25%	45%	24%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.