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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KIM Katherine	-	-	-	-	5%	33%	61%
2	GOOR Viviene E.	-	-	-	-	5%	33%	61%
3	SEIGEL Norah	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
3	DENG Melissa	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	28%
5	REN Kayley	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
6	VO Bao-Vy	-	4%	17%	38%	34%	8%
7	ZHANG Soleil C.	-	-	5%	22%	42%	28%	2%
8	SAIFEE Lamya	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	23%
9	RANDOLPH Piper	-	-	-	4%	30%	66%
10	HSU Kaylin	-	-	3%	15%	41%	40%
11	ZHANG Ivy	2%	12%	32%	36%	15%	2%
12	LIU Enjia sherry	1%	10%	31%	37%	19%	3%
13	CHEW Alexis T.	-	-	1%	11%	38%	49%
13	LENK Sophie	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
15	KIM Sydney	9%	36%	37%	15%	3%	-
16	HO Addison	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%	2%
17	SWANSON Alexa	-	-	1%	11%	38%	41%	9%
18	RAO Sonia D.	-	4%	22%	42%	27%	4%
19	LEVESQUE Brielle	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	3%
20	TIKHONOVA Vasilisa	49%	39%	11%	1%	-	-
21	DESAI Esha	3%	26%	43%	23%	5%	-
22	DANIELYANTS Gabriela	2%	17%	40%	32%	8%	-
23	LIU Samantha	6%	35%	40%	17%	2%	-
24	CHOI Kailyn	-	5%	20%	36%	30%	8%
25	HU Jenna	-	-	4%	21%	45%	27%	3%
26	GUAN Sophie	-	3%	17%	41%	33%	6%
27	FAN Lydia	7%	27%	38%	22%	5%	-
28	HOBSON Ava	1%	9%	30%	37%	19%	3%
29	LUO Miranda	1%	9%	33%	40%	15%	2%	-
30	POEI Lauren	5%	23%	36%	26%	8%	1%
31	GUAN Adeline	1%	13%	37%	36%	11%	1%
32	WU Chingfei Amber	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
33	PENG Serena	-	1%	12%	37%	42%	8%
34	PATTERSON Natalia	5%	29%	39%	21%	5%	-	-
35	CHANG Janelle	15%	45%	31%	8%	1%	-	-
36	YONG Rosalind	1%	12%	34%	37%	14%	2%	-
37	GUO Audrey	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
38	MARTIRE Alessandra	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	-
39	VANMOORSEL Faye	2%	15%	40%	33%	9%	1%	-
40	MCKAY Teresa	18%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
41	TIKHONOVA Sofia	19%	40%	30%	9%	1%	-
42	KIM Erin	19%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-
43	YUEN Elsie	4%	32%	42%	19%	3%	-
44	TANG Tang	3%	17%	35%	30%	12%	2%	-
45	HUGHES Olivia	46%	40%	12%	2%	-	-	-
46	JACOB Norah	59%	34%	6%	-	-	-
47	DO Leila	< 1%	2%	13%	34%	37%	13%
48	GUAN Sydney	8%	29%	38%	21%	5%	-
49	LIN Allison	67%	28%	4%	-	-	-
50	CANTON Sara	52%	39%	8%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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