Wang Memorial Div1A/2 ROC and RYC

Div II Women's Saber

Saturday, March 23, 2024 at 11:30 AM

Kay Baily Hutchison Convention Center Hall C - Dallas, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	LUKER Hannah	-	-	2%	15%	46%	38%
2	LUKER Sophia	-	-	7%	35%	43%	14%
3	KIM Karen	3%	22%	48%	24%	3%	-
3	XU Kaylyn	-	-	4%	22%	48%	26%
5	SEAL Cameron I.	-	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
6	ZHAI AMY	-	-	3%	18%	44%	35%
7	YE Madeleine	-	6%	29%	44%	19%	2%
8	REAVIS Isabel	-	3%	17%	40%	32%	8%
9	MATSUO Kei	-	-	2%	17%	44%	37%
10	NGUYEN Madeleine	-	3%	16%	37%	34%	9%
11	ALTMAN Leigh	-	-	-	2%	21%	77%
11	SADANI Jyotika	-	1%	12%	35%	39%	13%
13	MALLAMPATI Jaabili	-	2%	12%	40%	40%	5%
14	WITEK Isabelle	2%	17%	44%	30%	7%	-
15	SCHOON REBECCA	1%	15%	40%	35%	9%	1%
16	BANGALORE Shriya	5%	25%	42%	23%	5%	-
17	KANG Soeun	31%	43%	21%	5%	-	-
18	ZHOU Ziling	-	4%	22%	46%	26%	2%
19	CHERUKURI Tanvi	26%	44%	24%	5%	-	-
20	BERG Carley	14%	41%	35%	9%	1%	-
21	YOO Audrey	10%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-
22	SENTHIL Tejas	50%	39%	10%	1%	-	-
23	JUDE Simona	33%	45%	19%	3%	-	-
24	RIESTERER Katherine	7%	29%	39%	21%	4%	-
25	LU QIWEN	15%	41%	35%	9%	1%	-
26	GILLENTINE Madelyn	51%	40%	9%	1%	-	-
27	WEBB Maud	1%	6%	23%	39%	26%	5%
28	CHA Jungyun	18%	50%	27%	5%	-	-
29	QIU Sophie	20%	44%	28%	7%	1%	-
29	WOLVERTON Emma	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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