Star Youth Cup Y10

Y-10 Mixed Foil

Saturday, March 23, 2024 at 1:00 PM

Star Fencing Academy - NEEDHAM, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HAN Jiaren	-	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	< 1%
2	GE Deanna	-	1%	7%	20%	34%	28%	10%
3	ZHAO David	-	4%	21%	39%	29%	7%
3	ZHANG Aaron	-	-	4%	24%	57%	16%
5	ZHONG Kingsley	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
6	TIAN Andy	-	9%	33%	38%	17%	2%
7	XU Nicholas	-	-	5%	23%	44%	25%	3%
8	ZHANG Caleb	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	19%	1%
9	LU Allison	-	1%	12%	33%	35%	16%	2%
10	ARNOULD Frederick	-	1%	10%	30%	37%	18%	3%
11	ZHU Audrey	-	1%	11%	33%	40%	14%
12	ZHONG Albert	8%	29%	36%	21%	6%	1%
13	ZHANG Eric	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
14	GENG Vincent	2%	32%	41%	20%	4%	-	-
15	XIA Wenhao	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
16	HU Hudson	1%	10%	36%	36%	15%	3%	-
17	THYS Alexander	-	5%	21%	41%	30%	3%
18	MILLER Anna	1%	6%	24%	41%	26%	1%
19	SHEN Lawrence	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	21%
20	LIU Zihe	8%	32%	40%	18%	2%	-	-
21	JIA Emily	12%	37%	34%	14%	2%	-
22	WU Ryan	-	2%	11%	27%	33%	21%	5%
23	ZHANG Andrew	9%	38%	37%	14%	2%	-
24	XU Jaden	-	5%	21%	36%	29%	9%
25	GENG Emma	4%	24%	41%	24%	5%	-
26	EL-NAZER Salwa	-	25%	45%	24%	5%	-	-
27	BHALLA Emma	47%	39%	12%	2%	-	-	-
28	SIYAM Sofia	63%	32%	5%	-	-	-
29	SUN Neil	9%	29%	36%	21%	6%	1%
30	YANG Mark	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-
31	CHEN Keegan	< 1%	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
32	WANG Athena	1%	9%	28%	36%	21%	5%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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