56th Annual Green Gator

Senior Mixed Saber

Saturday, March 23, 2024 at 3:30 PM

Southwest Recreation Center - Gainesville, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DELARUE Nelson	-	-	-	-	1%	13%	86%
2	RADY-PENTEK Charles	-	-	-	-	6%	33%	60%
3	FAIR James	-	-	4%	22%	45%	29%
3	HAYES David	-	3%	18%	42%	31%	7%
5	HUTTON Sawyer	1%	8%	26%	39%	23%	4%
6	GLEASON Sean	-	-	1%	14%	81%	4%
7	BALLOU Johnathan	-	-	1%	10%	39%	50%
8	WOLF Gabriel	-	-	2%	12%	35%	41%	10%
9	WISEMAN Derrick	-	-	-	-	9%	91%
10	RODDENBERRY Steven	-	-	6%	28%	46%	20%
11	LOPEZ Lincoln	-	4%	20%	39%	29%	7%	-
12	RAKAJ Jozef	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	21%
13	CASTILLO Carlos	-	-	2%	22%	47%	28%	1%
14	PENNER Charlie	-	1%	12%	38%	37%	11%	-
15	FREEMAN Rian	11%	38%	39%	11%	1%	-
16	FREEDMAN Alexander	6%	35%	41%	16%	2%	-
17	BARRACLOUGH Finn	17%	42%	32%	9%	1%	-
18	SHIVELY Cole	-	7%	41%	47%	5%	-
19	TROEH Christopher	-	1%	7%	29%	43%	21%	-
20	ADIBZADEH Mehrdad	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
21	ESMER Ekin	14%	49%	33%	4%	-	-
22	THACKERAY Caden	-	1%	7%	29%	43%	20%
23	LOZITO Matthew	13%	39%	35%	11%	1%	-
24	EDWARDS Clayton	-	1%	11%	36%	39%	12%	1%
25	STEWART Logan	5%	28%	46%	19%	3%	-	-
26	POOLE Kiley	2%	19%	48%	26%	5%	-	-
27	BLESSING Katherine	19%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
28	CEBALLOS M. Micaiah	-	1%	12%	41%	36%	9%
29	BOUNDS Andrew	11%	33%	36%	17%	4%	-
30	TORO Diego	11%	34%	36%	15%	3%	-
31	SAYER Laura	24%	45%	26%	5%	-	-
32	MARTIN Zak	14%	39%	36%	11%	-	-
33	POND Verity	47%	43%	10%	1%	-	-	-
34	KUPCHA McKenna	22%	49%	24%	4%	-	-	-
35	AKULOVA Kat	17%	39%	32%	11%	1%	-
36	VALENCIAGA Sophia	25%	51%	21%	2%	-	-
37	SANDOVAL Elena	32%	46%	20%	2%	-	-
38	ARCEO ZAMORA David	25%	48%	23%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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