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Y-10 Men's Foil

Saturday, March 30, 2024 at 9:00 AM

University of California - Davis - Davis, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PARK Andrew	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	57%
2	SLAIN Owen	-	-	2%	13%	33%	38%	14%
3	RAU Shogun	-	-	-	5%	32%	63%
3	ALVAREZ Francisco Janusz	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	19%
5	WU Gengze (Daniel)	-	-	3%	20%	48%	29%
6	CHEN Ryker	-	-	1%	6%	26%	43%	23%
6	XU Ethan	-	2%	17%	44%	33%	4%
8	LU Brandon	-	1%	6%	22%	39%	28%	5%
9	LI Aaron	-	1%	7%	30%	49%	12%
10	AGARWAL Jagrav	-	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
10	LEE Conrad	-	2%	11%	29%	38%	18%	2%
12	WU Silin	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	17%
13	YU Jinyuan	-	4%	26%	44%	23%	4%
14	MURDOCK Koichi	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	26%
15	PARK Avan	-	1%	8%	28%	43%	20%
16	LEBURU Abhiram	-	-	1%	5%	22%	43%	30%
17	CREMEL Remi	-	-	5%	22%	40%	27%	6%
18	SHENOY sean	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
19	NGUYEN Norris	5%	30%	42%	20%	3%	-
20	LIU Aiden	14%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-
21	SHENOY Neil	15%	40%	33%	11%	2%	-
22	DING Sam	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
23	LI Lief	3%	19%	37%	31%	9%	1%	-
24	SHA Laien	6%	27%	40%	23%	4%	-
25	LIN Dylan	30%	44%	22%	4%	-	-
26	GOLDSTEIN Benjamin	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
27	KAJITA Grayson	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%	-
28	LIN Sampson	3%	19%	39%	29%	9%	1%	-
29	VIEN Bradley	16%	39%	33%	11%	1%	-
30	WANG Andrew	12%	35%	35%	14%	3%	-
31	FUNG Caleb	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	7%
32	HUANG Owen	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%	-
33	LEUNG Joon	-	-	4%	22%	46%	28%
34	SHAO Tysen	6%	25%	39%	24%	5%	-
35	LIN Stewart	5%	21%	35%	28%	10%	1%	-
36	LIN Zhengxuan	7%	30%	38%	20%	5%	-
37	JAIN Shubhit	-	5%	21%	35%	28%	10%	1%
38	ZHANG Charlie	-	6%	23%	37%	25%	8%	1%
39	YAN Aaron	16%	42%	32%	9%	1%	-	-
40	GU Evan	7%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%	-
41	LEE Reiden	11%	32%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
42	LUO Derren	36%	46%	17%	2%	-	-
43	YANG Nolan	34%	56%	10%	1%	-	-
44	FUNG Lucas	-	13%	42%	35%	10%	1%
45	SUN Lucas	8%	27%	35%	22%	7%	1%	-
46	YUNG Nathan	< 1%	9%	34%	41%	15%	2%
47	BEZBORODKO-VILLAIN Jules	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-
48	DULAI Hukam	12%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-
49	LEE Roland	15%	39%	34%	11%	1%	-
50	CREMEL Louis	38%	44%	16%	2%	-	-	-
51	DONG YIKUN	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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