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Div II Women's Épée

Sunday, March 31, 2024 at 1:00 PM

Rockland Community College, Eugene Levy Field House - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SMOTRITSKY Liat	-	-	3%	13%	32%	37%	15%
2	NGUYEN Ashley L.	-	-	4%	16%	34%	34%	13%
3	TRAN Katherine	1%	9%	26%	35%	22%	6%	1%
3	MIN Melinda	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
5	MEYER Rebecca	8%	26%	34%	23%	8%	1%	< 1%
6	CHEN Jingyun	-	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	25%
7	HAN Claire	-	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	24%
8	SHANKERDAS Shreeya	3%	14%	30%	31%	17%	5%	-
9	LURYE Lina	-	-	-	3%	19%	45%	33%
10	LI Caroline	6%	23%	34%	25%	10%	2%	-
11	FANG Jocelyn	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	2%
12	CONNOLLY Natasha	3%	17%	33%	30%	14%	3%	-
13	ELKHATEEB Fajr	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
14	AGAON Evelyn	-	4%	17%	32%	31%	14%	2%
15	LIN Victoria T.	-	1%	7%	22%	36%	27%	7%
16	YOU Isabel B.	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%
17	SHEFFIELD Skye	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	31%	10%
18	HO Gillian	8%	27%	35%	22%	6%	1%
19	TRAN Helena	-	-	1%	13%	39%	37%	10%
20	SANLIKOL Suzan	2%	18%	42%	30%	7%	1%	-
21	HAN Yuchen	-	4%	18%	33%	30%	13%	2%
22	BOWIE Charlotta	-	-	1%	10%	35%	40%	14%
23	DAGLI Saira Veronica	11%	35%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
24	BRAGG Leah	-	3%	15%	32%	35%	15%
25	JUN Bomie	-	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%
26	CHI Sarah	14%	34%	33%	15%	3%	-
27	WONG Caitlin	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	31%	9%
28	ZUCKER Emily A.	1%	9%	26%	35%	22%	7%	1%
29	BAWA Jenya	3%	16%	32%	32%	15%	3%
30	ZHENG Erin	9%	31%	36%	18%	5%	1%	-
31	MURPHY Megan	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	3%	-
32	BISEN Shivani S.	-	1%	6%	19%	34%	30%	10%
33	YU Eva	1%	13%	33%	34%	16%	3%
34	ZHANG ANGELA	-	10%	30%	36%	20%	4%
35	MASTRONARDI Laura	2%	13%	29%	32%	18%	5%	-
36	MCSWEENEY Janie	-	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	18%
37	YU Sara	45%	43%	11%	1%	-	-	-
38	FOMINA Polina	2%	14%	30%	32%	17%	4%	-
39	HU Chloe	28%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-	-
40	NGUYEN Celena	4%	20%	35%	28%	11%	2%	-
41	ELIAS Mariella K.	3%	15%	30%	31%	17%	4%	-
42	ZOU You yang (Yoyo)	2%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%
43	LIN Cynthia	28%	41%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
44	BRASTED Karen (Maggie) E.	-	5%	28%	43%	19%	3%	-
45	ALVAREZ Letizia	21%	48%	26%	5%	-	-	-
46	GARCIA Daniela	81%	17%	1%	-	-	-
47	FANG jenna kim	29%	42%	22%	6%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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