The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

April Banana

Div III Mixed Foil

Tuesday, April 2, 2024 at 6:15 PM

YEL Fencing Club - Hopkins, MN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HOWLAND Jonas	-	1%	6%	24%	38%	25%	6%
2	TAN Xinlai	-	-	-	1%	9%	41%	49%
3	NAIDL Josiah	-	-	1%	6%	23%	43%	28%
3	MCKINLEY Luke	-	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%
5	SHELTON Olivia	-	5%	25%	46%	22%	3%	-
6	GIEBLER Lucas	-	-	4%	16%	34%	34%	13%
7	ROLDAN-LEVCHENKO Nikita I.	-	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	12%
8	PHONPRASANSACK Grayson	-	4%	20%	35%	29%	11%	2%
9	JARCHO Beckett	-	-	3%	16%	34%	34%	13%
10	LOCKWOOD Jacob	-	-	2%	11%	31%	40%	16%
11	TOEWS Jackson	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	20%
12	KANG Marian	-	3%	19%	36%	29%	11%	1%
13	GARSKE James	-	1%	8%	28%	41%	19%	3%
14	ISHANOVA Sofia	-	2%	15%	39%	35%	9%
15	BERSCHEID Arthur	-	1%	9%	32%	38%	18%	3%
16	WAKEHAM Paul	-	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%
17	MADSEN Lindsey	3%	24%	50%	21%	3%	-
18	GLOVER George	-	-	-	5%	28%	48%	18%
19	JERNEY Agustina	1%	10%	30%	36%	18%	4%	-
20	VELAZQUEZ Rosa	-	1%	7%	30%	45%	18%
21	BASTODKAR Ved	13%	38%	34%	13%	2%	-
22	LOCKWOOD Jereme	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
23	AHNEMANN Leif	6%	36%	37%	17%	4%	-	-
24	ZEITLER Blake	-	2%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%
25	BULLARD Sydney	1%	14%	40%	34%	10%	1%	-
26	FEEHAN Conor	20%	43%	29%	7%	1%	-	-
27	BOMGARDNER Ben	43%	43%	13%	1%	-	-
28	HOPKINS Dylan	2%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%	-
29	KRONZER Sophia	16%	43%	31%	9%	1%	-	-
30	IBARRA Alejandro	9%	40%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
31	THIPHAVONG Tokyo	51%	37%	10%	1%	-	-	-
32	HICKNER Gabe	11%	41%	37%	10%	1%	-	-
33	POLYZOIS Alkis	65%	30%	5%	-	-	-	-
33	AMARVI Dominic	10%	37%	39%	12%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.