The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Motor City SYC

Y-14 Men's Saber

Sunday, April 7, 2024 at 2:00 PM

UWM Sports Complex - Pontiac, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WANG Max	-	1%	4%	16%	32%	33%	14%
2	PEREIRA Beckham	-	-	1%	11%	36%	39%	12%
3	YOOK Isaac	-	-	1%	13%	47%	39%
3	CHAMBERS Miles	-	-	-	3%	18%	44%	35%
5	CHENHE YuHan	-	-	2%	14%	38%	36%	9%
6	LUCAS William	2%	10%	26%	32%	22%	7%	1%
7	PARKILA Lukas	-	2%	8%	23%	34%	26%	8%
8	SO Morgan	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	7%
9	KIM Kendrick	-	-	1%	9%	27%	40%	23%
10	LI Huangziyue	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%
11	WU Timothy	2%	10%	26%	33%	21%	7%	1%
12	SONG Aidan	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	11%
13	HWANG Hagan	-	-	2%	18%	49%	30%
14	YUEN Caleb	-	4%	16%	33%	33%	13%
15	SRIVATSAV Ishaan	2%	14%	31%	32%	17%	4%	-
16	SU Kingston	8%	27%	35%	22%	7%	1%	-
17	KANIA Alexander	1%	6%	23%	37%	27%	7%
18	HUA Michael	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	6%
19	LIU Guanyu	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
20	SRIVATSAV Anay	1%	11%	38%	39%	11%	1%
21	AVERY Marcus	13%	34%	33%	16%	4%	-	-
22	DENG Keith	20%	43%	28%	7%	1%	-	-
23	RAVOOR Suvir	1%	14%	41%	35%	8%	1%
24	ZALEVSKY Liam	2%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
25	RAMANI Ari	30%	42%	22%	5%	1%	-
26	MBERIA Alexander	6%	23%	35%	25%	9%	2%	-
27	CHEN Lucas	-	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	6%
28	SINGH Ekam	7%	32%	41%	17%	3%	-	-
29	LI Ryan	2%	12%	31%	35%	18%	3%
30	MARCISZ Maksym	12%	47%	33%	8%	1%	-
31	MIAO Heqi	2%	13%	28%	31%	19%	6%	1%
32	BUCKLEY Owen	5%	21%	33%	26%	11%	3%	-
33	MILLER Blake	8%	30%	37%	19%	5%	-
34	ARGEMI Ot	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	-
35	ABADA lucca	8%	26%	34%	22%	8%	1%	-
36	HWANG Evan	7%	29%	39%	21%	4%	-	-
37	KAAKEH Mohammad	61%	33%	5%	-	-	-
38	CRACCHIOLO Augustino	15%	37%	33%	13%	3%	-
39	CLARK Brandon	2%	22%	43%	28%	5%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.