Magic City SYC/RJCC & Y8

Cadet Men's Saber

Saturday, April 13, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Birmingham Jefferson Convention Complex - Birmingham, AL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YE Ivan	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	21%
2	YE Eric	-	-	-	4%	20%	46%	29%
3	SHANKWILER Christopher	-	-	1%	6%	31%	63%
3	YU BOWEN	-	1%	9%	27%	38%	22%	3%
5	SO Preston	-	-	-	3%	15%	40%	42%
6	BURGESS Beckham	-	2%	14%	32%	34%	16%	2%
7	FANG Eason	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	9%
8	YOOK Isaac	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
9	XIA Matthew	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
10	BIALIK Noah	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
11	LIU Ethan	6%	27%	39%	23%	6%	1%	-
12	LIU Guanyu	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	-
13	GONG Gavin	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
14	ZHANG Kaixuan	1%	6%	21%	36%	29%	8%
15	SONG Aidan	2%	13%	33%	35%	15%	2%	-
16	WANG Alex	1%	8%	27%	35%	22%	6%	1%
17	PAUL James	9%	29%	36%	20%	5%	-
18	LIU Victor	-	2%	11%	30%	37%	19%	3%
19	RINALDI Savio	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%
20	MANNINO Miller	3%	17%	35%	32%	12%	1%
21	TSAO Alister	2%	13%	31%	35%	17%	2%
22	KIM Yusung	15%	36%	32%	13%	3%	-
23	XIAO Brayden	-	3%	15%	32%	33%	15%	2%
24	SUH Leo	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-	-
25	LIU Aaron	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	6%
26	NAMBIAR Navin	14%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-
27	KIM Samuel	5%	22%	35%	27%	9%	1%
28	YAO Zachary	37%	42%	17%	3%	-	-	-
29	TEDOFF Perlman B.	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-
30	PAK Andrew	12%	37%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
31	LAU Kyrus	12%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-
32	DULAY Peter	4%	17%	31%	29%	15%	4%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.