The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

Cherry Blossom ROC

Div I-A Women's Épée

Saturday, April 13, 2024 at 11:00 AM

University of Maryland, Reckord Armory - College Park, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YANG Alisa	-	-	-	4%	22%	45%	28%
2	FOELLMER Kristin	-	-	-	-	5%	34%	61%
3	CHI Chelsea	-	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	13%
3	YOU Emily	-	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	26%
5	GORDON Rachel A.	-	2%	15%	35%	34%	13%	1%
6	WITTER Catherine A.	-	-	2%	12%	32%	37%	16%
7	QIU Emily	-	5%	20%	35%	29%	10%	1%
8	KORFONTA Jolie	-	-	-	2%	12%	39%	46%
9	ASHER Valerie	-	-	1%	6%	26%	44%	23%
10	ROVATI Caterina	-	1%	8%	28%	38%	21%	3%
11	VAZQUEZ-LOPEZ Veronica J.	1%	11%	33%	39%	15%	2%	-
12	ILYAS Ayah	1%	10%	28%	35%	20%	5%	-
13	DIAZ Brenna	-	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%
14	CAMPBELL Anahit M.	-	1%	7%	25%	38%	25%	5%
15	DESAI Meera P.	-	-	-	6%	31%	50%	13%
16	WEI Sherry	6%	31%	41%	19%	3%	-	-
17	DUNSEATH Lauren M.	-	-	2%	15%	36%	35%	12%
18	SCHULTZ Gillian	-	1%	6%	27%	44%	20%	2%
19	MCCOY Lauren	-	3%	16%	35%	32%	12%	1%
20	MURPHY Megan	19%	45%	29%	6%	1%	-	-
21	PROKOP Jeannine A.	-	1%	6%	26%	39%	24%	5%
22	BARDIN Kira	2%	35%	41%	18%	3%	-	-
23	PILSON Rebecca	-	34%	42%	19%	4%	-	-
24	SCHULTZ Michelle M.	-	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	19%
25	BOWIE Charlotta	-	5%	20%	36%	28%	9%	1%
26	TEJADA Mikaela Aprille S.	-	8%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
27	LAWSON Marie A.	-	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	23%
28	MUELLER Polo	-	2%	12%	32%	35%	16%	2%
29	PEELER Julia	-	4%	22%	40%	27%	7%	1%
30	GAVASHELI Margarita	22%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
31	JEYOON Lauren	30%	44%	21%	4%	-	-	-
32	WANDMACHER GUERRERO Angela	14%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-	-
33	ROWLAND May	-	9%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-
34	MURPHY Katherine	7%	29%	40%	20%	4%	-	-
35	LIU Sydney	2%	13%	32%	33%	16%	3%	-
36	BENAVIDES Samantha	26%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
37	STEEL Jane	46%	40%	12%	1%	-	-	-
38	THOMAS Meagan R.	6%	32%	41%	18%	3%	-	-
39	GIFFORD Sally	12%	34%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
40	JEANDHEUR Carole A.	4%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%	-
41	IYENGAR Sthuthi	88%	12%	1%	-	-	-	-
42	EL BADAOUI Salma	99%	1%	-	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.