James L. Melcher Epee Grand Prix

Men's Épée

Sunday, April 14, 2024 at 11:00 AM

Fencers Club Inc. - New York, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GORNOVSKY David	-	-	-	2%	17%	46%	35%
2	RODNEY Adam	-	-	-	1%	10%	44%	46%
3	MOORE Shomari	-	-	-	2%	18%	50%	29%
3	KNOX James	-	-	2%	16%	37%	34%	11%
5	KAULL James	-	-	-	1%	13%	55%	31%
6	CAI Brian	-	-	7%	41%	48%	4%
6	ARAVIND Athreya	-	1%	13%	52%	32%	2%
8	DUNCAN Corwin	-	-	5%	28%	45%	21%
9	SANDERS Ian	-	1%	15%	43%	34%	8%
10	CHEIAN Dinis	-	-	1%	10%	33%	40%	17%
11	ZHANG William	-	-	11%	42%	40%	7%	-
12	FULLER George	-	-	2%	20%	40%	30%	7%
13	GRAMS Steven	-	-	2%	19%	46%	32%
14	CARPENTER Liam	-	1%	38%	44%	15%	2%
15	TSINIS Alex	-	-	-	1%	14%	86%
15	GRIFFITHS Ryan	-	-	3%	20%	46%	31%
17	ISAAC Joseph	-	-	4%	26%	47%	23%
18	GAO Daniel	-	7%	45%	37%	10%	1%
19	PRIHODKO Max	1%	6%	24%	39%	25%	5%	-
20	MACARTY Jordan	-	-	7%	25%	37%	25%	6%
21	MELCHER Jack	-	-	19%	46%	29%	6%
22	LIN Yufei	47%	43%	9%	< 1%	-	-
23	CHOI Joong Kyung	-	6%	27%	39%	23%	4%	-
24	LIU Hongyu (Ryan)	1%	7%	25%	38%	23%	6%	-
25	AINA Tiwalayo T	16%	43%	31%	9%	1%	-	-
26	COETZEE Frans	-	7%	38%	42%	12%	1%	-
27	O'LONGAIGH Sunkhar	64%	34%	2%	-	-	-
28	FENG Haozhen	23%	48%	26%	3%	-	-	-
29	ROMERO Javier	3%	19%	38%	30%	9%	1%	-
30	GAO "George" Xiaojiang	25%	53%	20%	1%	-	-
31	SAWASDIKOSOL Sansana	25%	61%	12%	1%	-	-
32	CLARE James	66%	33%	-	-	-	-
33	RICH Celester	4%	27%	51%	17%	2%	-
34	MOORE James	32%	66%	1%	-	-	-
35	ACKLAND Matthew	22%	50%	25%	3%	-	-	-
36	CHEN Edward	68%	29%	3%	-	-	-	-
37	CHOU Kevin	10%	35%	38%	15%	2%	-	-
38	MOY Jerry	19%	43%	29%	7%	1%	-	-
39	RIFKIND Neil	15%	55%	26%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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