Fencing Center of Chicago RYC & RJCC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Energy Sport Club - Niles, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	BOIKE Lucille	-	-	1%	8%	37%	54%
2	KNAPP Isabella	-	-	1%	12%	40%	47%
3	CASHMAN Hailey	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
3	FRASER Morgan	-	-	5%	24%	44%	27%
5	MUMMANENI Samyuta	-	-	-	1%	15%	84%
6	HU Sophie	-	2%	12%	36%	38%	12%
7	HUANG Natalie	-	-	4%	22%	46%	28%
8	SALMI-BYDALEK Ada	-	1%	9%	32%	41%	17%
9	HOROWITZ Shuli	-	-	3%	19%	44%	34%
10	RIVERA Leahy	-	2%	16%	40%	33%	9%
11	OS Danielle	-	-	4%	20%	46%	31%
12	HUFFMAN Yunia	3%	18%	37%	32%	9%	1%
13	LIU Sophia	5%	23%	38%	27%	7%	-
14	ZHANG Selina	2%	15%	35%	34%	12%	1%
15	YANG Olivia	-	2%	14%	36%	38%	10%
16	SHUSTA Lily	-	3%	16%	39%	33%	9%
17	KIM Gia	1%	8%	31%	40%	19%	2%
18	PARANJAPE Ojasvi	1%	7%	29%	40%	21%	3%
19	ZOLDAN Nolabelle	-	2%	14%	36%	38%	9%
20	MA Sophia	1%	7%	24%	41%	26%	2%
21	ZHOU Jolena	11%	35%	37%	15%	2%	-
22	KASHUBA Mila	8%	30%	38%	19%	4%	-
23	SUN Nicole	2%	17%	40%	31%	9%	1%
24	BELL Blake	2%	14%	35%	35%	13%	1%
25	EVOLA Samantha	18%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
25	YARLAGADDA Smaya	7%	28%	38%	22%	5%	-
27	LEE Eun-Hae	6%	26%	39%	24%	5%	-
28	MADABHUSHI Diya	12%	37%	36%	14%	2%	-
29	FORT Eliana	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-
30	KOLPIN Elise	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-
31	VELEZ Sofia	20%	40%	30%	9%	1%	-
32	LIN Athena	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
33	KIM Yuna	-	4%	20%	40%	30%	6%
34	REDEMANN Reagan	7%	32%	40%	18%	3%	-
35	SMITH Samantha	41%	42%	14%	2%	-	-
36	KAGAN Natalie	6%	26%	39%	23%	5%	-
37	KU Amanda	31%	47%	19%	3%	-	-
38	HUANG Cynthia	31%	46%	19%	3%	-	-
39	GONG Maggie	29%	47%	20%	3%	-	-
40	LALONDE Beatrice	10%	37%	38%	14%	2%	-
41	YU Reecy	32%	48%	18%	2%	-	-
42	OWENS Genevieve	25%	42%	25%	6%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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