Division 1/Parafencing National Championships + April NAC

Vet-60 Men's Foil

Saturday, April 27, 2024 at 9:00 AM

Salt Palace Convention Center - Salt Lake City, UT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	HAYENGA Gary M.	-	-	4%	23%	46%	27%
2	DEW Eric	-	-	1%	12%	41%	45%
3	LEBLANC Gerald (Jerry) A.	-	1%	20%	43%	29%	5%
3	LAWRENCE John W.	-	-	-	7%	35%	58%
5	CRACRAFT William J.	1%	16%	43%	31%	8%	1%
6	DARRICAU Henri J.	-	-	5%	24%	44%	27%
7	BALESTRACCI CHRIS	-	1%	10%	33%	44%	12%
8	GROSS Stephen R.	-	1%	9%	33%	42%	17%
9	DOURAGHY Jamie M.	-	-	-	4%	27%	68%
10	ESTELL Oscar M.	-	-	3%	19%	46%	31%
11	DONE Harris	-	1%	13%	39%	36%	10%
12	WILBERT Matt	1%	10%	32%	39%	16%	1%
13	BLAIR III Ray H.	5%	29%	41%	22%	4%	-
14	WHARTON David	-	15%	42%	33%	9%	1%
15	ROLANDO Doc	-	2%	20%	42%	30%	6%
16	HENDRICKS Ron	3%	20%	40%	29%	7%	-
17	DRAKE David L.	1%	13%	36%	37%	12%	1%
18	VOYIAZIAKIS Emanuel	-	2%	24%	44%	26%	4%
19	GLADNICK Michael J.	4%	24%	40%	26%	6%	-
20	KRAUSS John W.	-	8%	32%	41%	17%	2%
21	LANDIS Geoffrey A.	58%	36%	6%	-	-	-
22	SKOPIK Jr August	25%	45%	25%	5%	-	-
23	YOO Terry S.	22%	67%	11%	1%	-	-
24	BERGER Jamie	24%	44%	26%	6%	-	-
25	LESNIAK Chuck	1%	37%	43%	17%	2%	-
26	VAN STEIN Thomas	65%	31%	3%	-	-	-
27	WEMPLE Charles	93%	7%	-	-	-	-
28	MARIANI Lou	-	3%	19%	41%	32%	4%
29	TREANOR Donald K.	17%	51%	27%	5%	-	-
30	LIMA Roberto M.	54%	36%	9%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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