Division 1/Parafencing National Championships + April NAC

Vet-50 Women's Épée

Saturday, April 27, 2024 at 2:00 PM

Salt Palace Convention Center - Salt Lake City, UT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MARCHANT Sandra M.	-	-	2%	16%	43%	39%
2	TOTEMEIER Ann M.	-	-	2%	16%	43%	38%
3	TOLLEY Toby	-	3%	17%	37%	32%	10%	1%
3	BRISK Angelica A.	-	3%	17%	37%	32%	10%	1%
5	CHIMIENTI Michele	-	1%	7%	32%	43%	17%
6	EXUM Monica M.	-	-	-	2%	14%	44%	40%
7	LLOYD Melanie	-	12%	37%	36%	13%	2%
8	PROKOP Jeannine A.	-	-	4%	23%	45%	28%
9	VESSELS Susan L.	-	-	1%	9%	31%	42%	17%
10	SCHULTZ Michelle M.	-	-	3%	21%	46%	30%
11	PAINE Cheryl A.	-	2%	17%	40%	32%	8%
12	CHANG Heidi	-	1%	11%	33%	41%	14%
13	GANSER Yuliya	-	-	3%	19%	44%	34%
14	LORENTSON Dawn M.	-	1%	9%	31%	42%	17%
15	WOLF Lisa A.	-	2%	15%	39%	35%	9%
16	HUTCHINSON Valerie A.	-	1%	9%	36%	41%	14%
17	SANCHEZ-EMDEN Marta	-	1%	8%	31%	43%	17%
18	SHICK Klaudia	-	2%	16%	39%	34%	9%
19	DICKEY Jacquelyn	5%	26%	40%	24%	5%	-
20	SWENSON Alexandra	-	8%	32%	40%	18%	2%
21	BLASKO Judit	11%	39%	38%	11%	1%	-
22	SHADE nadine	6%	38%	39%	14%	2%	-
23	SCHMID Carola K.	1%	7%	27%	40%	21%	3%
24	KUNJAN Christiane	8%	39%	37%	14%	2%	-	-
25	BYRON Karen J.	1%	12%	41%	34%	10%	1%
25	WOUNDY Melissa A.	9%	34%	38%	16%	3%	-
27	LEWIS Sandra	67%	30%	3%	-	-	-
28	BOWEN Victoria M.	3%	23%	43%	25%	6%	-
29	BILLINGS Saylor	66%	30%	4%	-	-	-
30	FISCHER Marit	2%	16%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-
31	DREYER Nadia S.	1%	33%	43%	20%	3%	-
32	NOLLNER Jennifer R.	44%	41%	13%	2%	-	-
33	KELLY Diane A.	14%	51%	29%	6%	-	-
34	MAYCHROWITZ Laura M.	95%	5%	-	-	-	-
35	OSTERBAUER Nancy K.	45%	42%	12%	1%	-	-
36	GERRISH Joanne	11%	40%	38%	10%	1%	-
37	BECK Sara	60%	34%	6%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.