Perseus RYC/RJCC +Y8

Junior Women's Foil

Sunday, May 12, 2024 at 1:30 PM

Rockland Community College - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	EYER Hailey M.	-	-	-	-	1%	13%	87%
2	ROZPEDOWSKI Claire	-	1%	9%	30%	42%	18%
3	SHMAY Anastasia	-	2%	15%	43%	40%
3	LI Han (Helina)	1%	13%	34%	35%	14%	2%
5	LEE Lavender	-	-	-	-	6%	33%	60%
6	JOO Natalie	-	-	6%	27%	46%	19%	1%
7	CHO Emily (Euran)	-	-	2%	18%	49%	30%
8	YANG Emma	-	-	7%	31%	44%	18%
9	YANG Iris	-	-	-	7%	36%	57%
10	KAPRAN Anastasia	-	3%	29%	43%	21%	3%
11	BASILE Gianna	1%	16%	41%	34%	8%
12	SHIM Grace J.	-	-	2%	18%	42%	32%	6%
13	MARKOVSKY Nina	-	2%	23%	44%	27%	4%
14	SHENG Katherine	2%	19%	43%	30%	6%	-
15	HARRIS Julia	1%	11%	37%	39%	11%	1%
16	ZELDIN Nadia	1%	9%	34%	40%	14%	1%
17	MI Aileen	-	-	1%	13%	47%	39%
17	CHOW Annabelle	-	-	3%	21%	45%	31%
19	PEVZNER Nicole	-	-	3%	23%	44%	27%	4%
20	CHEN Renee	-	-	1%	11%	40%	49%
21	MEI Sarah	-	1%	7%	31%	48%	14%
22	ZHANG Selena	-	4%	30%	43%	20%	3%
23	PAULUS Sloane E.	-	-	1%	12%	40%	43%	3%
24	LI Eleanor	-	1%	5%	24%	43%	27%
25	FENG Audrey	2%	17%	37%	31%	10%	1%
26	WANG Joanna	-	1%	15%	41%	36%	8%
27	YU Jane	2%	16%	42%	33%	7%	1%
28	LIU Long	1%	13%	38%	36%	11%	1%	-
29	SIMONOV Dasha	-	-	6%	34%	41%	16%	1%
30	BERGEL Daphne	6%	28%	39%	22%	5%	-
31	BABIAC Julia	-	3%	26%	43%	24%	4%
32	LAZAR Carolina	34%	54%	11%	1%	-	-
33	PUOPOLO Mia	5%	36%	41%	16%	2%
34	JIANG Chloe	1%	18%	56%	22%	3%	-	-
35	SONG Jenna	1%	11%	35%	38%	14%	1%	-
36	DIMATULAC Elise Ann	1%	13%	39%	37%	10%
37	HWANG Chanel	25%	59%	15%	1%	-	-
38	KIM Claire	10%	42%	36%	11%	1%	-
39	ORBE-AUSTIN Nia	30%	48%	19%	3%	-	-
40	LI Xiang (Shining)	9%	43%	36%	11%	1%	-	-
41	CHOI ERIN	47%	46%	7%	-	-	-	-
42	CHAKRAPANI Ila	70%	27%	3%	-	-
43	SNYDERS Evelyn	32%	47%	18%	3%	-	-
44	REZA Fukaina	58%	35%	7%	-	-	-
45	CULLEN Alyssa	61%	36%	3%	-	-	-
46	GOLDBERG Talia	63%	31%	5%	-	-	-	-
47	LAWRENCE Nia	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-
48	COMO Gabriella	51%	44%	5%	-	-	-
49	CHEN Colyi	35%	53%	12%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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