NEUSFA D and Under

Div III Men's Épée

Sunday, May 12, 2024 at 9:00 AM

Worcester Fencing Club - Worcester, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	YIN Chujun	-	5%	20%	38%	30%	6%
2	ZELIN Sam J.	-	-	1%	11%	38%	50%
3	AINA Tiwalayo T.	-	1%	12%	43%	43%
3	YAO Jack	3%	22%	43%	26%	4%
5	CHEN Allen	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	4%
6	STEVENSON Ryan	-	6%	29%	46%	18%
7	WU Chi Kuan	3%	19%	43%	32%	2%
8	TEMPLEHOF Robert C.	-	1%	8%	27%	40%	23%
9	SMITH Troy H.	-	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
10	THOMPSON Ian	1%	11%	35%	40%	13%
11	WHITE Aidan	20%	43%	30%	7%	-
12	KIM Nathan	2%	14%	34%	35%	14%	1%
13	STEIN Philip	2%	13%	33%	36%	15%	2%
14	PESSIN Nadav	1%	9%	28%	36%	21%	5%
15	RADZIKOWSKI Sam	19%	44%	30%	7%	-
16	MECHREFE Anthony	25%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
17	ERIKSEN Casey	17%	43%	33%	8%	1%
18	JU Bryan	-	-	6%	47%	46%
19	SONG Changze	-	4%	18%	39%	33%	6%
20	WANG Zhenhai	37%	42%	17%	3%	-	-
21	ZHOU Anping	14%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
22	SEILS Aether	13%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
23	SMALL Brayden	32%	45%	20%	3%	-
24	REELS Eric J.	-	2%	16%	43%	39%
25	SPRINGER Elijah	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%
26	LARAGY Collin	22%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-
27	BUMPUS Isaias	16%	41%	32%	10%	1%
28	URBANOWICZ Mathias	1%	12%	33%	35%	16%	2%
29	WOHL Martin A.	5%	26%	40%	24%	4%
30	LIN Yufei	4%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%
31	HIGGINS Paul	37%	45%	16%	2%	-
32	MIDDLETON Michael	8%	34%	41%	16%	2%
33	PANAS Mason	4%	23%	40%	26%	6%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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