NYFA Youth Cup #6

Y-12 Mixed Épée

Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 1:30 PM

NYFA Brooklyn - Brooklyn, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KIM Henry	-	-	1%	8%	35%	56%
2	WU Michelle	-	1%	8%	37%	55%
3	DODIN Daniel M.	-	-	4%	20%	45%	32%
3	KATS Brandon	3%	22%	42%	28%	5%
5	VOSKOV Olivia	-	1%	16%	50%	29%	4%
6	DANILOV Artur	-	-	2%	15%	43%	39%
7	MIDYANY Ryan	-	1%	7%	27%	44%	21%
8	NOOL Alexander	1%	11%	30%	36%	19%	4%
9	KHERSONSKYI Robert	2%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%
10	MASKIN Mikhail	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%
11	FRIZZELL Kai	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-
12	CHOU Andrea	4%	20%	38%	28%	9%	1%
13	PETROFF Eva	1%	15%	46%	31%	7%	-
14	WANG Cecilia	1%	7%	23%	36%	27%	7%
15	WU Matthew	1%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
16	JU Jennifer	1%	10%	43%	44%	2%
17	CHEN Jayden	30%	46%	21%	4%	-	-
18	YAKHNIS Seth	-	5%	25%	41%	25%	4%
19	SHEYDIN Barry	3%	18%	35%	30%	12%	2%
20	CHO Adrian	36%	45%	17%	2%	-
21	WONG Angelina	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
22	CHIANG William	-	6%	26%	41%	24%	3%
23	TANG Colin	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-
24	MOKRETSOV Leah	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	2%
25	SCHNEIDERMAN Fiona	-	3%	22%	49%	25%	1%
26	NOOL Aaron	2%	14%	35%	34%	13%	1%
27	KIM Abigail	3%	22%	42%	26%	6%	-
29	CHEN Laila	4%	22%	42%	27%	5%	-
30	JEPP Michael	4%	22%	40%	26%	7%	1%
31	SHAO Mason	20%	45%	28%	6%	-
32	KAZARIAN Matthias	22%	44%	27%	7%	1%	-
33	CHEN Reina	24%	54%	20%	2%	-	-
36	HAN Emma	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-
37	KHAHAM Samuel	13%	38%	34%	12%	2%	-
38	CHEN Regis	22%	39%	28%	9%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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