Midwest ROC (DV1A, DV2, VET) & RJCC

Junior Women's Foil

Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 11:30 AM

Canlan Sports Lake Barrington - Barrington, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	AADHI Hansika	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%
2	WEI Angela	-	-	-	3%	16%	41%	39%
3	SWOPE Farren	-	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	7%
3	KANG Marian	-	1%	8%	26%	36%	23%	5%
5	GOLLNICK Mira	-	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%
6	ISHANOVA Sofia	-	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%
7	SHAH Suhani	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	32%	12%
8	HOROWITZ Shuli	-	3%	14%	32%	33%	15%	2%
9	URDANETA LARGURA Sylvia	-	1%	7%	24%	38%	24%	5%
10	CAMPBELL June	-	-	4%	17%	35%	32%	12%
11	DESAI Kanushi	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%	-
12	MORSE Katherine	1%	9%	26%	34%	22%	7%	1%
13	BLAKEY Heaven	-	1%	5%	19%	34%	31%	10%
14	COLLINS Anna	-	5%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%
15	LEVY Gabrielle	3%	17%	33%	30%	14%	3%	-
16	TELCI Arya	39%	40%	17%	4%	-	-	-
17	MALONE Ella	1%	6%	20%	33%	28%	11%	2%
18	HANNAH Abigail	5%	25%	39%	24%	7%	1%	-
19	KRONZER Sophia	23%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-	-
20	MCKAY Teresa	-	1%	6%	20%	37%	30%	7%
21	JERNEY Agustina	1%	7%	23%	34%	25%	9%	1%
22	LUO Victoria	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
23	MALVESTUTO Evelyn	23%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
24	HARRIS Parker	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%	-
25	RIES Celina	6%	29%	38%	21%	5%	1%	-
26	BIRNER Layla	19%	41%	29%	9%	2%	-	-
27	SOROUR Amira	44%	41%	13%	2%	-	-	-
28	REYNOLDS Lourdes	3%	18%	37%	29%	11%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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