Foil and Epee D Meet

Div III Mixed Épée

Sunday, May 19, 2024 at 2:30 PM

Seacoast Fencing Club- Rochester - Rochester, NH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KIM Nathan	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
2	ZELIN Sam J.	-	4%	20%	41%	32%	3%
3	MOSKOWITZ Martin	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	14%
3	RADZIKOWSKI Sam	3%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
5	ORESKOVIC Olivier	3%	19%	37%	30%	10%	1%
6	PETERSEN Zachary	1%	5%	22%	38%	28%	6%
7	O'BRIEN Eamon	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
8	WENGER Caleb	-	1%	8%	30%	45%	16%
9	SMITH Troy H.	-	-	1%	13%	47%	39%
10	YIN Chujun	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%
11	STEVENSON Ryan	1%	9%	30%	39%	18%	3%
12	DOLLARHITE Tommy	1%	7%	25%	40%	24%	3%
13	SONG Changze	-	5%	22%	38%	28%	6%
14	WU Chi Kuan	-	12%	43%	36%	8%
15	OTTAVIANO Aaron	2%	48%	39%	10%	1%
16	GRADY James	7%	29%	38%	20%	5%	-
17	WANG Zhenhai	6%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%
18	ETZEL Rowan	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%
19	MELCHER Charles	-	7%	30%	44%	19%
20	AGIREDDY Vanya	64%	32%	4%	-	-
21	CHARLES Connor	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	4%
22	MURDOCH ROY Grace	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
23	MISSERT Justin	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
24	BAZZANA Beniamino	11%	33%	37%	16%	2%	-
25	OSHIMA Robert	13%	34%	34%	15%	3%	-
26	SEILS Aether	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	-
27	REINEKE Gerhard	6%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%
28	ARRISON James (Jamie) A.	34%	43%	20%	4%	-	-
28	CHEN Yanhan (Ben)	2%	17%	40%	33%	8%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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