Fairfax Challenge Winter RYC & RJCC

Junior Women's Saber

Sunday, December 29, 2019 at 4:00 PM

Owings Mills, MD - Owings Mills, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	TUCKER Iman R.	-	1%	9%	31%	41%	18%
2	HONE Katarina G.	-	2%	15%	36%	36%	11%
3	TAO Hannah J.	-	1%	10%	29%	40%	20%
3	LU Yi Lin	-	4%	20%	38%	30%	8%
5	HUANG Sharon	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
6	TANG Annie L.	-	-	5%	23%	43%	29%
6	SHI Cathleen	1%	11%	34%	37%	16%	2%
8	CANSECO Laura K.	-	3%	16%	37%	34%	10%
9	JOHNSON Lauren	-	6%	26%	40%	24%	5%
10	CHANG Emily	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
10	LU Amy	-	9%	30%	38%	19%	3%
12	OLSEN Natalie J.	-	1%	11%	32%	40%	16%
13	YANG Ashley M.	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	26%
14	LI Victoria J.	-	6%	22%	37%	28%	7%
15	NEWELL Alexia C.	-	1%	11%	31%	39%	17%
16	WEI Vivian W.	2%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%
17	BANG Hyeonjeong	1%	7%	26%	37%	24%	5%
18	DHAR Aamina	14%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
19	NYSTROM Sofia C.	-	17%	39%	31%	10%	1%
20	HOVERMAN Hannah A.	2%	16%	39%	31%	10%	1%
21	SCHIKORE Anna M.	9%	36%	37%	15%	3%	-
22	D'ORAZIO Sofia V.	52%	38%	9%	1%	-	-
23	HASSANEIN Toqa	1%	21%	41%	29%	8%	1%
24	HU Allison C.	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
25	YANG Kaitlyn H.	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
26	MA Grace C.	12%	42%	34%	10%	1%	-
27	KERBEL Natalie	2%	20%	38%	29%	10%	1%
28	ELDER Rhiannon C.	77%	21%	2%	-	-	-
29	MEYTIN Sophia E.	47%	40%	12%	2%	-	-
30	ZENG Megan	90%	9%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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