National Championships and July Challenge (Summer Nationals)

Vet-60 Men's Foil

Thursday, July 4, 2024 at 11:00 AM

Greater Columbus Convention Center - Columbus, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GRANDBOIS Peter R.	-	-	-	1%	18%	81%
2	DIAZ Julio P.	-	-	4%	21%	43%	31%
3	DARRICAU Henri J.	-	-	1%	10%	40%	49%
3	DEW Eric	-	-	-	1%	10%	39%	50%
5	DOURAGHY Jamie M.	-	-	-	6%	36%	58%
6	LEBLANC Gerald (Jerry) A.	-	1%	10%	34%	43%	13%
7	DORFMAN Mitchell (Mitch) J.	1%	10%	32%	37%	17%	3%
8	DONE Harris	-	1%	24%	47%	26%	2%
9	LAWRENCE John W.	-	-	2%	14%	40%	44%
10	BALESTRACCI CHRIS	-	-	3%	15%	38%	36%	8%
11	KAIHATSU Edward J.	-	-	4%	20%	41%	29%	6%
12	DELL George H.	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
13	DRAKE David L.	-	5%	29%	43%	20%	3%
14	BERGER Jamie	10%	32%	37%	18%	3%	-	-
15	MARIANI Lou	1%	12%	35%	36%	15%	2%
16	GROSS Stephen R.	-	1%	23%	48%	27%	2%
17	KAROLAK Dale W.	-	1%	27%	48%	23%	1%
18	WILBERT Matt	2%	16%	40%	34%	8%	-
19	ESTELL Oscar M.	-	-	4%	25%	52%	18%
20	FADL Omar	2%	12%	31%	36%	18%	3%
21	LESNIAK Chuck	10%	39%	37%	12%	1%	-
22	KLEIN Johannes	-	10%	39%	38%	12%	1%
23	HAYENGA Gary M.	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
24	CRACRAFT William J.	6%	25%	37%	25%	7%	1%
25	BRANDYBERRY Mark A.	3%	17%	33%	32%	13%	2%
26	LIM Richard M.	3%	29%	41%	22%	5%	-
27	BLAIR III Ray H.	7%	27%	38%	23%	6%	1%	-
28	LANDIS Geoffrey A.	19%	71%	9%	-	-	-
29	KRAUSS John W.	3%	20%	42%	29%	5%	-
30	RIVERA Ricky N.	3%	48%	38%	10%	1%	-
31	YOO Terry S.	71%	26%	3%	-	-	-
32	ZEISS Gary M.	19%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-
33	BERGER Gregory (Zustrich)	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
34	GLADNICK Michael J.	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-	-
35	ZAIDI Sohail	48%	40%	11%	1%	-	-
36	JENKINS Michael	76%	23%	-	-	-	-
37	WEMPLE Charles	91%	9%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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