Windy City Fencing SYC #10 / RCC

Cadet Women's Foil

Friday, September 20, 2024 at 12:00 PM

The Athletico Center - Northbrook, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	TANG Melody Fujiao	-	-	2%	13%	43%	43%
2	FENG Audrey	-	1%	13%	43%	42%
3	BING Charlotte	-	1%	7%	28%	45%	18%
3	HAN Gian	2%	11%	28%	34%	21%	5%
5	ZOLDAN Gweniveve A.	1%	7%	23%	35%	26%	8%
6	HUANG Natalie	4%	27%	45%	21%	3%
7	TAN Dorathy	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%
8	GE Lena Lan	6%	31%	42%	19%	2%
9	HOOGSTRA Lucy	4%	20%	38%	30%	8%	1%
10	HOROWITZ Shuli	3%	22%	43%	28%	4%
11	ORBÉ-AUSTIN Maya	1%	13%	42%	36%	8%
12	CULLIVAN Sienna	-	3%	19%	47%	32%
13	DAI Iris Yuyang	3%	16%	32%	31%	15%	3%
14	HARRIS Parker	14%	48%	31%	7%	-
15	TUCKER ALARCON Frida	-	1%	9%	37%	54%
16	KHAN Leena	12%	32%	34%	17%	4%	-
17	ORBE-AUSTIN Nia	1%	10%	32%	40%	17%
18	MUMMANENI Samyuta	-	3%	20%	48%	29%
19	DESERANNO Seren	7%	30%	39%	20%	4%
20	SWOPE Farren	1%	11%	33%	39%	16%
21	WATSON Evelyn	4%	23%	42%	27%	4%
22	TAYLOR-OSBORN Nadia	18%	46%	30%	6%	-
23	LICHTENSTEIGER Megan	3%	20%	39%	30%	8%
24	OS Danielle	8%	29%	38%	20%	4%	-
25	BOIKE Lucille	6%	24%	35%	25%	8%	1%
26	KIM Alison	49%	39%	11%	1%	-
27	CHOI Cara	59%	35%	6%	-	-
28	LIN Kenzie	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-
29	ZOLDAN Nolabelle	42%	43%	13%	1%	-
30	CHUNG Stella	42%	41%	14%	2%	-
31	URDANETA LARGURA Sylvia	1%	9%	35%	42%	13%
32	UTIN Alexandra	11%	35%	37%	15%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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