River City Regional Rumble - RYC/RJCC and Y8

Junior Women's Épée

Saturday, September 21, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Greater Richmond Convention Center - Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZANGA Kaitlyn	-	-	-	7%	37%	55%
2	YANG Alisa	-	-	-	-	1%	14%	85%
3	ZHU Serene M.	-	-	1%	10%	43%	45%
3	KROPP Anne	1%	9%	28%	39%	22%	2%
5	YOU Emily	-	-	-	-	4%	28%	68%
6	CHI Chelsea	-	-	-	2%	22%	76%
7	ILYAS Ayah	-	-	6%	29%	50%	16%
8	LEE Gloria Y.	-	-	2%	15%	40%	37%	6%
9	CAMPBELL Eva	-	-	3%	18%	44%	36%
10	KUPPUSAMY Mahaa	9%	31%	36%	19%	4%	-	-
11	MURPHY Katherine	-	1%	6%	23%	41%	27%	2%
12	MARTINEZ Christina	-	1%	9%	32%	42%	16%
13	CHEN Ava	25%	48%	23%	4%	-	-
14	QI Julieanne	-	-	4%	24%	49%	23%
15	WEI Sherry	-	5%	23%	41%	26%	5%
16	YAO Chloe	5%	23%	38%	27%	7%	-
17	BARDIN Kira	-	1%	9%	31%	40%	17%	2%
18	RICHARDS Axelle	2%	23%	45%	25%	4%	-
19	JEYOON Lauren	3%	23%	42%	26%	6%	-
20	LOZIER Grace	1%	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%	-
20	AZAD Ava	3%	22%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-
22	CUEVA Viola	-	8%	32%	43%	16%	1%
23	GAVASHELI Margarita	1%	10%	38%	39%	11%	1%
24	FRAGER Soleil	4%	19%	37%	31%	10%	-
25	MOYNIHAN Jones	1%	12%	38%	37%	11%	1%
26	BURT Emmalyne Grace	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
27	KANG Yenna	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	9%	-
28	DAVIS Elisabeth	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
29	EL BADAOUI Salma	26%	47%	23%	4%	-	-	-
30	HAVERSON Civa	-	1%	13%	41%	35%	9%	-
31	DESAI Ela	10%	39%	37%	12%	2%	-
32	COMBS Hannah	54%	37%	8%	1%	-	-
33	KRISHNA Rithika	5%	37%	41%	15%	2%	-
34	SUNMAN Rory	42%	46%	11%	1%	-	-
35	BENAVIDES Samantha	11%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
36	SHIN Jamie	72%	25%	3%	-	-	-
37	NANAYAKKARA Sanuthi	15%	36%	33%	13%	2%	-	-
38	BUNCH Halle	36%	46%	16%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.