River City Regional Rumble - RYC/RJCC and Y8

Cadet Men's Saber

Saturday, September 21, 2024 at 12:00 PM

Greater Richmond Convention Center - Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SU Landon	-	-	-	-	3%	23%	74%
2	PATEL Rayn	-	-	-	1%	6%	33%	60%
3	WANG Max	-	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
3	XU Ivan	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
5	LIN Felix	-	1%	11%	36%	42%	9%
6	GUREVICH Benjamin	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	26%
7	HALL Noah	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
8	HENRY Cadel	1%	9%	30%	37%	19%	3%
9	HUCHWAJDA Alex	-	-	3%	14%	37%	39%	8%
10	SLEP Solomon	-	3%	14%	31%	34%	16%	1%
11	BENE Andrew	14%	40%	33%	11%	2%	-
12	SALMAN Hamzah	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
13	BIALIK Noah	2%	18%	39%	30%	10%	1%
14	SZULIM Lucjan	-	3%	15%	33%	34%	14%	1%
15	MEHTA Yash	14%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-	-
16	PERRIN Leo	-	3%	14%	34%	35%	13%	1%
17	WEI Rian	-	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	19%
18	QIN toby	1%	10%	30%	38%	18%	4%	-
19	CRAIN Bennett	-	-	2%	12%	35%	37%	13%
20	BUKZIN Alan	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
21	STRUCKER Rocco	2%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%
22	NELKA Brenden	-	-	4%	19%	42%	35%
23	PAK Andrew	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
24	BREUER Daniel	2%	15%	37%	33%	11%	1%
25	FENG Brendan	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
26	PAUL Jimmy	11%	35%	35%	16%	3%	-
27	BALU Aedan	1%	8%	27%	37%	23%	5%
28	RINALDI Savio	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%	-
29	LI Andrew	2%	15%	33%	32%	15%	3%	-
30	GARCIA RODRIGUEZ Juan Pablo	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
31	HOWERTON Beckett	25%	46%	24%	5%	-	-	-
32	MOON Noah	3%	20%	39%	29%	8%	1%
33	BENE Paul	40%	45%	14%	2%	-	-
34	GOLART Dylan	2%	26%	40%	24%	7%	1%	-
35	LIAO Sirui	2%	14%	33%	34%	14%	2%	-
36	CHAWLA Abhishek	38%	43%	16%	3%	-	-
37	CARTER Robert	34%	43%	19%	4%	-	-
38	YEAZEL Colin	26%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-	-
39	NGUYEN Minh	4%	32%	40%	20%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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