12th Annual Little Musketeers RYC and RJC

Junior Men's Foil

Saturday, September 21, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YI William	-	-	1%	8%	29%	41%	20%
2	COSTE Fabien	-	-	-	2%	17%	47%	34%
3	BAE Eugene	-	-	1%	10%	33%	40%	16%
3	LIN Xilong	-	-	-	1%	8%	36%	55%
5	NAVARRO Kato	-	-	2%	15%	38%	37%	8%
6	ATTIA Aly	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
7	ZHANG Jacob	-	-	1%	6%	22%	41%	30%
8	ORNELAS Matteo	1%	7%	27%	40%	22%	4%
9	BIELER Mason	-	3%	14%	30%	32%	17%	3%
10	CHALUT Etienne	-	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
11	PINCHENG Yao	-	-	4%	21%	43%	32%
12	ZHOU Ryan	-	2%	12%	34%	39%	14%
13	FLANAGAN Miles	6%	24%	35%	25%	9%	2%	-
14	PONS Diego	-	-	2%	14%	37%	36%	11%
15	CHEN Matthew	-	-	4%	17%	35%	32%	11%
16	CHOI Ethan	-	1%	13%	38%	34%	12%	1%
17	SCHIENEMAN Valentine	-	-	-	4%	20%	42%	33%
18	BAKER Ethan	-	3%	14%	32%	33%	15%	2%
19	LOZANO Veyron Jericho	-	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
19	ZHONG Maxwell	-	-	1%	9%	32%	41%	17%
21	ZHAN Kevin	-	2%	15%	38%	33%	10%	1%
22	PE Noah	6%	30%	39%	20%	5%	-	-
23	CHANG Nathan	-	1%	11%	36%	36%	14%	2%
24	LLIDO Soren	-	1%	6%	23%	39%	26%	5%
25	TSOI Spencer	-	1%	9%	27%	37%	21%	4%
26	LING Carson Jr	1%	8%	23%	34%	25%	9%	1%
27	CHAN Joseph	2%	19%	41%	29%	8%	1%	-
28	LO Ernest	26%	46%	24%	4%	-	-	-
29	WU Lucas	-	6%	25%	39%	24%	6%	-
30	KUNTSEVICH Ivan I.	1%	10%	26%	33%	21%	7%	1%
31	KAUSHISH Rayirth	9%	35%	41%	13%	2%	-	-
32	BARTSCH Henry	2%	16%	38%	32%	11%	1%
33	KIM Jonah	-	1%	8%	30%	40%	18%	2%
34	FOY Grant	10%	39%	36%	13%	2%	-
35	DULAI Agam	49%	39%	11%	1%	-	-
36	BORG Matthew	1%	5%	19%	33%	29%	12%	2%
37	ROSE Jacob W.	6%	35%	41%	16%	2%	-	-
38	DULAI Angad	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-	-
39	BHARDWAJ Ranbir	14%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
40	SMITH Jeremiah	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-	-
41	GUDIMETLA Siddhanth	9%	31%	37%	18%	4%	-	-
42	PONTOPPIDAN Erik	4%	28%	43%	21%	4%	-	-
43	SHORTER David Alexander	26%	47%	23%	3%	-	-	-
44	DANIEL Nikith	16%	46%	30%	7%	1%	-	-
45	MARSHALL Kyler	64%	31%	5%	-	-	-	-
46	CHANG Eric Jonathan	3%	22%	40%	27%	8%	1%	-
47	TRUJILLO Jonah	48%	40%	11%	1%	-	-	-
48	HUANG Nathan	23%	39%	27%	9%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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