12th Annual Little Musketeers RYC and RJC

Y-14 Women's Saber

Saturday, September 21, 2024 at 9:00 AM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JIANG Evelyn	-	-	-	3%	15%	41%	41%
2	YUEN Nicole	-	-	-	1%	9%	42%	48%
3	LIN Elaine	-	-	-	2%	12%	38%	48%
3	NING Lynn	-	-	-	5%	26%	48%	20%
5	NAVARRO LARIOS KATE	-	-	-	2%	15%	45%	38%
6	LONG Jessie	-	-	4%	24%	50%	22%
7	LIU kai yin aria	-	-	-	5%	25%	47%	22%
8	SUNG Isabella	-	1%	7%	23%	37%	26%	6%
9	WANG Jiayi	-	-	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
10	YU Stella	-	-	3%	14%	35%	37%	12%
11	CHEN Cindy	-	5%	19%	35%	29%	11%	1%
12	GAIKWAD Ashmiee	-	-	1%	9%	41%	49%
13	LONG Chloe	-	-	1%	7%	25%	43%	24%
14	CAO Kim	1%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%	-
15	JUNG Sienna	-	7%	27%	38%	22%	5%	-
16	WU Daisy	1%	8%	23%	34%	25%	8%	1%
17	YU Skylar	-	-	1%	5%	23%	44%	27%
18	PARK Chloe	3%	15%	31%	31%	16%	4%	-
19	KIM Alexia	1%	8%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%
20	VILLAMATER Mia Franchesca	-	6%	24%	37%	25%	6%	1%
21	HSIEH Lucia	2%	12%	28%	33%	20%	6%	-
22	TABANCAY Ava	-	6%	25%	37%	24%	6%	1%
23	CHENG Zijuan "Grace"	-	1%	7%	27%	44%	20%	2%
24	BHAVSAR Vanmayi	16%	45%	32%	7%	1%	-	-
25	BORTAI Eliza	2%	11%	27%	33%	20%	6%	1%
26	HENRY Erin	4%	21%	38%	28%	8%	1%	-
27	CAI Veronica	1%	8%	24%	33%	24%	8%	1%
28	VIGNEUX Nolwenn	11%	38%	37%	12%	1%	-
29	CAI Joanna	1%	8%	31%	43%	16%	2%
30	CHANG Kaitlyn	-	1%	12%	40%	36%	10%	1%
31	HU Ashley	1%	9%	27%	35%	22%	6%	1%
32	FAN Yutong	17%	39%	32%	11%	1%	-	-
33	DAVIS Layla	8%	34%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
34	WANG Makayla	9%	35%	40%	14%	2%	-
35	LIQUARD Lea	12%	35%	36%	15%	2%	-	-
36	LIN Ariel	-	2%	10%	29%	37%	19%	3%
37	CHENG Anna	-	1%	8%	31%	41%	17%	2%
38	VENNE Sophie	4%	20%	37%	29%	10%	1%	-
39	DING Jolie	15%	34%	32%	15%	4%	-	-
40	ENNIS Charlotte	9%	34%	36%	17%	4%	-	-
41	MENDOZA SAB	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
42	HALPERN Athena	10%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
43	ANDERSON Kathryn	10%	33%	36%	17%	4%	-	-
44	SONG Phoebe	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-	-
45	SAYONE Liliana	37%	44%	17%	2%	-	-
46	PANCHAL Arya	30%	42%	22%	5%	1%	-	-
47	LEE Olivia	53%	38%	9%	1%	-	-	-
48	WU Aurora	38%	44%	16%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.