Windy City Fencing SYC #10 / RCC

Cadet Men's Foil

Sunday, September 22, 2024 at 12:00 PM

The Athletico Center - Northbrook, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHUANG Oscar	-	-	-	-	3%	25%	72%
2	PALMA Nathan Anthony	-	-	-	3%	26%	70%
3	GRIFFITH MCALLISTER Thomas	-	-	-	1%	23%	75%
3	HAYES Stewart	-	-	6%	28%	45%	21%
5	GE Felix Fei	-	-	1%	6%	26%	48%	20%
6	LIU Yinhong	-	-	1%	14%	49%	35%
7	RODRIGUEZ Tyler	-	-	-	1%	10%	42%	47%
8	HICKEY Connor	-	-	1%	14%	48%	37%
9	SLUSHER Gideon	-	-	1%	10%	49%	40%
10	DESERANNO Leander	-	-	1%	11%	49%	39%
11	ZHENG Marcus	-	-	4%	23%	45%	27%
12	HEYBOER Jason	-	-	5%	27%	56%	12%
13	HONG Derek	-	4%	23%	45%	26%	3%
14	WEI Winston	-	3%	14%	31%	34%	16%	1%
15	ONG Nicholas	-	1%	15%	41%	34%	9%
16	JIN Xuechong Daniel	-	5%	22%	38%	27%	7%	-
17	NABASSOUA Djibril	-	2%	14%	40%	38%	6%
18	TAGORE Reyansh	8%	30%	38%	19%	4%	-	-
19	BALES Gabriel	7%	52%	34%	6%	-	-
20	EDWARDS Connor	-	8%	39%	42%	11%	1%
21	FINDLAY Zachary	1%	14%	45%	32%	8%	1%
22	HERRERA Xavier	2%	10%	26%	34%	22%	6%	-
23	GOGOI Kavi	6%	30%	42%	19%	3%	-
24	WEBSTER Liam	-	5%	31%	50%	13%	1%
25	KAGAN Noah	7%	30%	40%	20%	2%	-
26	DEPP Edward	-	8%	39%	41%	10%	1%
27	DAVIS Benjamin	4%	21%	41%	29%	5%	-
28	LEE Junehyuk	4%	18%	33%	29%	13%	2%	-
29	ZMUDA Aiden	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	-
30	NAIDL Micah	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%	-
30	FOSTERVOLD Castiel	11%	30%	34%	19%	5%	1%	-
32	XU Rambert	6%	23%	35%	26%	10%	2%	-
33	CHAN William	26%	55%	18%	2%	-	-
34	YOUM Tyson	22%	43%	28%	7%	-	-
35	LINEBERRY CADEN	11%	55%	28%	5%	-	-
36	DIFRANK Tae	16%	40%	33%	10%	1%	-
37	YATES Graeme	71%	26%	3%	-	-	-
38	YOUNG Jack	16%	43%	32%	8%	1%	-
39	DRAWZ Chase	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
40	NG Gavin	73%	25%	2%	-	-	-
41	FEEHAN Conor	37%	44%	17%	2%	-	-
42	CAI Jonathan	1%	17%	66%	15%	1%	-
43	ZHANG Hanson	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-	-
44	POLYZOIS Alkis	54%	40%	6%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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