Motor City RYC/RJCC and Y8 Foil

Y-14 Women's Foil

Saturday, September 28, 2024 at 1:00 PM

Elite Sportsplex - Waterford, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PUTHOFF Olivia	-	-	1%	9%	39%	51%
2	DESERANNO Seren	1%	9%	33%	41%	15%	1%
3	RIVERA Leahy	-	6%	29%	39%	21%	4%
3	MUMMANENI Samyuta	-	-	1%	13%	46%	40%
5	TAO Isabella	-	2%	14%	36%	35%	12%
6	HU Sophie	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	13%
7	KOU Elisha	-	-	3%	13%	32%	37%	15%
8	YUAN Aiting	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	21%
9	KNAPP Isabella	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	18%
10	CULLIVAN Sienna	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	34%
11	HOROWITZ Shuli	-	1%	6%	24%	38%	26%	6%
12	TAN Dorathy	-	2%	13%	39%	39%	7%
13	HUFFMAN Yunia	7%	27%	38%	23%	6%	1%
14	HUANG Natalie	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	19%
15	WALL Kinzi	-	-	1%	10%	37%	52%
16	ZHANG Priscilla	-	6%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
17	ADLER Zoe	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
18	LIN Kenzie	-	5%	25%	37%	25%	7%	1%
19	CHOI JULIE	-	-	3%	22%	49%	26%
20	HARRIS Parker	-	4%	23%	40%	27%	6%
21	ZHANG Selina	1%	11%	34%	39%	13%	1%
22	LICHTENSTEIGER Megan	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
23	BOIKE Lucille	-	2%	13%	35%	38%	13%
24	YANG Hanli	1%	8%	33%	42%	15%	2%
25	PAN Yiran	-	2%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
26	ZOLDAN Nolabelle	1%	11%	29%	34%	19%	5%	-
27	SALMI-BYDALEK Ada	2%	16%	38%	32%	11%	1%
28	YANG Olivia	7%	35%	39%	17%	3%	-
29	REN Luna Siyi	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%	-
30	ESMONDE-WHITE Daphne	-	6%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
31	LIN Athena	60%	33%	6%	1%	-	-
32	YU angela	35%	48%	15%	2%	-	-	-
33	NAFSOU Ava	4%	22%	37%	26%	9%	1%	-
34	FRASER Morgan	-	1%	8%	30%	46%	15%
35	DINH May	1%	12%	41%	36%	9%	1%
36	ZHOU Jolena	44%	40%	14%	2%	-	-
37	SUN Nicole	35%	43%	18%	3%	-	-
38	MARTIN Sloan	-	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%
39	SAMALA Reese	4%	21%	39%	27%	8%	1%
40	KUANG Xiyan	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
41	MARTIN Avery	11%	45%	33%	10%	1%	-
42	KOZUB Joslyn	25%	44%	25%	5%	-	-
43	LEE Eun-Hae	11%	35%	37%	15%	2%	-
44	EVOLA Samantha	37%	47%	14%	2%	-	-
45	MAEDA Hotsumi	30%	46%	20%	4%	-	-	-
46	MADABHUSHI Diya	63%	32%	5%	-	-	-
46	YARLAGADDA Smaya	33%	50%	15%	2%	-	-
46	BRYANT Zaire	1%	28%	43%	23%	5%	-
49	KOLPIN Elise	50%	38%	11%	2%	-	-	-
50	SPERO MALONEY Anaya	5%	36%	39%	16%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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