Neil Lazar Div1/Div2/Veteran ROC

Div II Women's Saber

Sunday, September 29, 2024 at 8:00 AM

NYA Sports and Fitness Center - Newtown, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	ATTIA Jasmine	-	-	-	5%	33%	62%
2	ONG Lauren	2%	15%	36%	36%	11%
3	DESAUTELS Alexandra	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
3	MCMAHON Kylin S.	-	2%	13%	34%	36%	14%
5	AKULA Roszlynn	6%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%
6	HORVITZ Jacqueline	-	1%	8%	33%	46%	12%
7	WONG Charlene	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%
8	KWON Ava	-	2%	13%	32%	37%	16%
9	KALINICHENKO Yekaterina	1%	12%	33%	36%	16%	2%
10	MERCHANT Aishwarya	-	-	3%	15%	41%	42%
11	NG Sophia	20%	42%	29%	8%	1%
12	BUTMAN Chloe Alexandra	3%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%
13	BIRNSTILL Reese	-	3%	17%	36%	33%	11%
14	LEE Kaitlin	1%	8%	31%	42%	17%	1%
15	NIU Jessica	1%	7%	24%	37%	26%	7%
16	YANO Wendy	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
17	MARGULIAN Maria	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
18	YOON Sela	4%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%
19	PRICE Elizabeth	11%	35%	38%	14%	2%
20	BARNES Sarah	3%	23%	43%	25%	5%	-
21	LAFFY Lily	1%	13%	34%	35%	15%	2%
22	LOCONTO Sophia	1%	8%	27%	38%	23%	4%
23	NAYAK Anika	-	5%	20%	36%	29%	9%
24	MURPHY Jessica	2%	19%	38%	30%	10%	1%
25	ROHATGI Saanvi	57%	34%	8%	1%	-	-
26	FUSCONI Hailey	18%	43%	30%	8%	1%	-
27	CRONIN Kayla H.	26%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-
28	PEDICONE Clare	48%	38%	12%	2%	-	-
29	HOWARD Seren	39%	46%	14%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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