Motor City RYC/RJCC and Y8 Foil

Junior Women's Foil

Sunday, September 29, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Elite Sportsplex - Waterford, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SENIC Adeline	-	-	-	-	-	3%	97%
2	LIU Enjia sherry	-	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
3	MUMMANENI Samyuta	-	1%	6%	22%	41%	29%	1%
3	WANG SIQI	-	-	-	-	4%	28%	67%
5	DESERANNO Seren	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%	-
6	SONG Jenna	-	-	4%	19%	37%	30%	9%
7	LICHTENSTEIGER Megan	1%	6%	21%	34%	28%	10%	1%
8	HAN Katherine	-	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	21%
9	DAVIES Ellie	-	-	-	-	5%	28%	67%
10	AADHI Hansika	-	2%	16%	42%	39%
11	SONG Erin	-	3%	18%	38%	31%	9%	1%
12	MALONE Ella	7%	30%	40%	20%	3%
13	CAMPBELL June	-	1%	7%	25%	38%	25%	6%
14	URDANETA LARGURA Sylvia	-	-	3%	17%	38%	34%	7%
15	HOROWITZ Shuli	-	5%	18%	34%	30%	12%	1%
16	CHOI JULIE	-	2%	9%	26%	37%	23%	3%
17	DIRKES Catherine	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
18	YU Eliza	-	1%	8%	28%	37%	22%	4%
19	LEMASTERS Elise M.	5%	22%	35%	27%	10%	1%	-
20	ZOLDAN Gweniveve A.	2%	14%	37%	37%	11%
21	HARRIS Parker	-	3%	21%	39%	28%	8%	1%
22	ZOLDAN Nolabelle	10%	35%	37%	15%	3%	-	-
23	XIONG Isabel	1%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	-
24	COLLINS Anna	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%	-
25	GE Lena Lan	-	3%	19%	38%	30%	9%	1%
26	OKWUOSAH Judith	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	2%	-
27	WALL Kinzi	3%	16%	31%	31%	15%	3%	-
28	PAN Yiran	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%	-
29	MAEDA Hotsumi	35%	48%	15%	2%	-	-	-
30	HANNAH Abigail	31%	44%	21%	4%	-
31	DINH May	17%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
32	SAMALA Reese	18%	38%	30%	12%	2%	-	-
33	XIE Ling	5%	20%	35%	28%	11%	2%	-
34	COHEN Ava	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%
35	LATIFI Fara	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
36	MCDANIEL Laila	8%	32%	38%	17%	4%	-	-
37	STONE Sydney	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%	-
38	BROSNAN Lily	9%	29%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
39	BROWNING Ruby	37%	49%	12%	1%	-	-	-
40	TELCI Arya	36%	43%	18%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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