Motor City RYC/RJCC and Y8 Foil

Cadet Men's Foil

Sunday, September 29, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Elite Sportsplex - Waterford, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIU Ethan	-	-	-	-	6%	34%	59%
2	ALLEN Henry G.	-	-	-	-	4%	32%	64%
3	EDWARDS Maxon	-	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
3	PALMA Nathan Anthony	-	-	5%	24%	44%	27%
5	OZAWA Taishi	-	2%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%
6	GUTH Joseph	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	35%
7	BERNARD Cohen	-	-	5%	24%	42%	25%	4%
8	VANOYEN Dominick	-	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	23%
9	YIN Zixin(Gavin)	-	-	4%	21%	39%	28%	7%
10	LEE Ian	-	10%	41%	36%	12%	1%
11	STRINGER David	-	-	1%	6%	23%	41%	28%
12	HICKEY Connor	-	3%	13%	31%	34%	16%	3%
13	LIU Yinhong	-	2%	19%	42%	30%	7%
14	QU Zhida (richard)	-	4%	23%	40%	26%	6%	-
15	KUE Temujin	-	3%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
16	NAZARIO Dominic	5%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
17	FANG Haoyu	-	5%	20%	35%	29%	10%	1%
18	ARAVINDAKSHA Ayaan	-	1%	9%	31%	41%	17%	2%
19	DIEPSTRA Jeremy	-	-	1%	8%	30%	48%	13%
20	LU Jingyi	-	-	1%	12%	36%	39%	11%
21	FRASER Rhys	-	5%	22%	39%	26%	7%	1%
22	LI Evan	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%	-
23	VOLLMER Quintin	-	-	2%	12%	37%	40%	9%
24	MOLDOVEANU Roman	6%	40%	39%	13%	2%	-	-
24	HUANG Holmes (Shengheng)	-	1%	6%	22%	37%	28%	7%
26	CAO Justin	1%	8%	25%	35%	23%	7%	1%
27	MAVANI Krishna	-	2%	16%	39%	32%	10%	1%
28	ZHENG Marcus	-	-	7%	29%	44%	20%
29	GE Felix Fei	-	2%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%
30	WANG Daniel	10%	36%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
31	SUN Ryan	-	-	1%	8%	30%	42%	19%
32	CHEN Varick	33%	46%	19%	3%	-	-	-
33	COOK Grant	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%	-
34	ZMUDA Aiden	6%	27%	40%	21%	5%	-	-
35	LAMBERT Parker	5%	25%	37%	24%	8%	1%	-
36	NI Aaric	26%	44%	25%	5%	-	-	-
37	DEPP Edward	5%	26%	43%	21%	4%	-	-
38	EDWARDS Connor	34%	42%	20%	4%	-	-	-
39	KAGAN Noah	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	-	-
40	NEWMAN Noah	13%	53%	28%	5%	-	-
41	TAGORE Reyansh	15%	36%	32%	13%	2%	-	-
42	KOLACKI Gabriel	24%	47%	25%	4%	-	-	-
43	VARRE Rishi	1%	16%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-
44	FEEHAN Conor	73%	24%	3%	-	-	-	-
45	NG Kai	4%	19%	36%	30%	11%	1%	-
46	DIFRANK Tae	45%	40%	12%	2%	-	-	-
47	HARRISON Leo	70%	27%	2%	-	-	-
48	GOGOI Kavi	20%	43%	29%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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