The Austin Challenge SYC and RCC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Friday, December 20, 2019 at 11:00 AM

Round Rock, TX - Round Rock, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GRIFFIN Emma G.	-	-	-	-	4%	28%	68%
2	DE LA CRUZ Eden	-	2%	12%	35%	42%	9%
3	GEBALA Gabrielle Grace A.	-	-	-	5%	31%	63%
3	TAKAMIZAWA Yukari	-	-	-	4%	28%	68%
5	TAN Kaitlyn N.	-	-	-	3%	27%	70%
6	CHEW Alexis T.	-	1%	8%	27%	40%	22%	2%
7	LEE Ariana	-	5%	23%	42%	27%	3%
8	TUCKER ALARCON Frida	6%	26%	39%	24%	5%	-
9	SENIC Adeline	-	-	1%	5%	22%	43%	30%
10	UMAP Arna	-	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
11	KOSLOW Amicie	-	-	6%	29%	53%	12%
12	CHANG Elizabeth	-	5%	24%	42%	26%	3%
13	LIU Jaelyn A.	-	1%	8%	22%	34%	27%	8%
14	SUN Chien-Yu	-	1%	9%	29%	39%	20%	2%
15	AHMED Hannah	-	3%	12%	28%	33%	19%	4%
16	NEWHARD Zelia K.	-	1%	6%	19%	34%	30%	10%
17	CUI Amy	-	-	2%	13%	33%	38%	14%
18	OLSHANSKY Eliora S.	2%	17%	40%	34%	7%	-
19	SHA Yi Ling	-	2%	14%	33%	34%	14%	2%
20	HWANG Jungmin	2%	14%	29%	32%	18%	5%	1%
21	SOLDATOVA Maria	3%	15%	31%	30%	16%	4%	-
22	WILLIS Fletcher L.	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	8%	-
23	MALHOTRA Simran	5%	27%	42%	22%	3%	-
24	HOBSON Ava	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
25	WELBORN Calissa	2%	18%	41%	31%	8%	-
26	CHEN Chloe I.	4%	19%	33%	28%	13%	3%	-
27	SULTER Aurelie	35%	44%	18%	3%	-	-	-
28	LEE Ji Ahn	13%	41%	33%	11%	2%	-	-
29	LENZ Zoe N.	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-
30	POPOKH Aleksandra	12%	42%	34%	11%	1%	-
31	NAIR Supriya	1%	11%	32%	35%	17%	4%	-
32	COOPER Piper W.	15%	35%	31%	15%	4%	-	-
33	LIU Michelle J.	9%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-
34	LUH Mia P.	6%	31%	41%	19%	2%	-
35	LI Irina	16%	41%	31%	10%	2%	-	-
36	NISSINOFF Alexandra	2%	16%	36%	31%	12%	2%	-
37	CHOI Kailyn	49%	39%	10%	1%	-	-
38	DODDABALLAPUR Saanvi	43%	42%	13%	2%	-	-	-
39	MASON-DARNELL Zoe	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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