Ben Gutenberg SYC - RJCC

Y-12 Women's Saber

Monday, October 14, 2024 at 12:30 PM

Golisano Training Center at Nazareth University - Rochester, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HU Alicia	-	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	14%
2	MULLER Inara	-	2%	14%	34%	37%	14%
3	REN Katherine	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%
3	YU Stella	-	-	1%	9%	28%	41%	20%
5	ZHAO Selena	-	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
6	XU Elaine	-	-	2%	9%	29%	40%	20%
7	CHOWDHERY Myra	-	3%	12%	28%	33%	20%	4%
8	KIM Grace	-	1%	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%
9	ZHANG Ashley	-	-	-	3%	15%	41%	42%
10	SUNG Olivia	-	-	1%	6%	22%	41%	30%
11	OSMINKINA-JONES Kai	-	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
12	NEMORIN Rei	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
13	PEREIRA Izumi	10%	30%	36%	19%	5%	1%	-
14	HEATH Isabella	-	1%	7%	23%	37%	27%	6%
15	YU Skylar	-	1%	6%	23%	37%	27%	7%
16	WANG MONA	6%	23%	34%	25%	10%	2%	-
17	ZHANG Wuxin	1%	8%	28%	38%	21%	4%
18	YOUNG Sienna	1%	9%	27%	35%	22%	6%	-
19	MCCARTHY Nora Louisa Abrous	7%	33%	38%	18%	4%	-
20	MAK Jayden	-	4%	19%	34%	29%	11%	2%
21	KO Ariel	1%	8%	24%	35%	24%	7%	1%
22	WANG Keira	5%	21%	33%	27%	12%	2%	-
23	DEMRY Kylee	11%	36%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
24	LIU Stephanie	1%	6%	20%	34%	28%	10%	1%
25	WILLER Anna	1%	7%	22%	35%	26%	8%	1%
26	TA-ZHOU Sophia	1%	11%	32%	36%	17%	3%
27	ZHANG Nikki	1%	7%	22%	35%	26%	8%	1%
28	KIM Jodie	7%	25%	36%	23%	8%	1%	-
29	ZHANG Shihan	2%	12%	28%	32%	19%	5%	1%
30	WU Harper	8%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%	-
31	WANG Emily	2%	13%	28%	32%	19%	5%	1%
32	MALUKI Nia	3%	15%	30%	31%	16%	4%	-
33	SMITH Genevieve	39%	42%	16%	3%	-	-	-
34	YE Athena	16%	37%	32%	13%	3%	-	-
35	WANG Chloe	1%	9%	27%	36%	21%	6%	1%
36	WANG Selina	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
37	CHANG Grace	18%	40%	31%	10%	2%	-	-
38	HU Sophia	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-
39	YI Victoria	1%	8%	26%	36%	22%	6%	1%
40	LI Gloria	14%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-	-
41	RADELL Zoe	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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