Challenge by the Bay RYC/RCC/Y8

Y-12 Women's Foil

Monday, October 14, 2024 at 1:00 PM

Power Sports Academy - Martinez, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YAO Abby	-	-	-	4%	28%	68%
2	CHAN Mila	-	-	-	3%	23%	74%
3	WANG Doreen	-	-	-	1%	12%	42%	45%
3	ZHOU Joi	-	-	1%	8%	35%	55%
5	NEUMANN Erika	-	-	-	2%	11%	39%	49%
6	CHANG Lydia	-	-	1%	12%	41%	46%
7	ARYA Leela	-	-	1%	6%	28%	47%	18%
8	CHENG Audrey	-	3%	17%	39%	35%	6%
9	KIM Natalie	-	1%	9%	28%	41%	22%
10	PAN Samantha	2%	14%	38%	37%	8%	-
11	LI Audrey	1%	11%	33%	38%	15%	1%
12	HSU Rachel	-	-	1%	11%	41%	47%
13	NICOLETTI Thea	7%	29%	38%	21%	5%	-
14	HOM Emma	2%	17%	37%	33%	11%	1%
15	LIN Avery	3%	18%	38%	31%	9%	1%
16	THOTA Akira	-	1%	12%	37%	39%	10%
17	ZHANG Elizabeth	-	1%	8%	30%	45%	16%
18	PAWAR Sanvi	2%	17%	37%	31%	11%	1%	-
19	LEE Abigail	-	1%	7%	23%	37%	27%	6%
20	LAM Dorris Yandor	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-	-
21	ZALTZMAN Maya	3%	18%	35%	30%	12%	2%
22	KIM Audrey	-	3%	18%	42%	31%	6%
23	VALOUEVA Katerina	7%	30%	39%	20%	4%	-
24	WANG Ellen	16%	40%	33%	11%	1%	-
25	LAI Olivia	19%	39%	29%	11%	2%	-
26	YU Xintong	3%	20%	38%	29%	8%	-
27	LAU Shu Yeung Sophia	1%	6%	23%	36%	26%	8%	1%
28	AHN Hayley	1%	9%	28%	39%	21%	2%
29	KIM Rylie	-	1%	11%	32%	39%	15%	2%
30	ARUNKISHORE Dakshina	2%	16%	36%	33%	12%	1%
31	YU-TAN Claire	6%	28%	39%	22%	4%	-
32	MCLANAHAN Jasmine	3%	17%	38%	32%	10%	1%
33	DONG Nancy	2%	13%	34%	35%	14%	2%	-
34	YIN Anthea	44%	43%	12%	1%	-	-
35	IRELAND Moira	22%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-
36	THERIOT Reagan	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
37	JOESUF Thea	3%	23%	44%	24%	5%	-
38	STERNAD Pia	6%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%
39	SCHOR Katherine	37%	43%	17%	3%	-	-
40	GUO Jianing	2%	15%	37%	34%	11%	1%
41	ZHANG Annabelle	4%	22%	38%	28%	8%	-
42	CHO Rylee	-	3%	18%	38%	32%	8%	-
43	CHAN Amelia	5%	21%	34%	27%	11%	2%	-
44	LEE Annalyn	30%	46%	21%	4%	-	-	-
45	BASTUNAS Marissa	39%	41%	16%	3%	-	-
46	LUO Olivia	17%	45%	30%	7%	1%	-
47	KIM Ines	26%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-
48	FENG Sophia	1%	9%	32%	39%	17%	2%
49	KAIMAN Tabby	< 1%	6%	27%	41%	22%	3%
50	STOCK Nina	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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