The Austin Challenge SYC and RCC

Cadet Men's Saber

Saturday, December 21, 2019 at 12:30 PM

Round Rock, TX - Round Rock, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JEAN Noe T.	-	-	-	2%	16%	42%	40%
2	SUSANTO Samuel (sammy)	-	1%	19%	42%	31%	7%
3	GREEN James	-	2%	11%	32%	38%	16%
3	AVAKIAN Alec	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	19%
5	KIM Shaun M.	-	-	4%	23%	45%	28%
6	XU Andrew	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
7	LE Hayden	-	-	1%	12%	44%	43%
8	XUE ALEXANDER	-	1%	12%	35%	38%	14%
9	CHON Taylor A.	-	-	2%	25%	50%	22%
10	BANNERMAN Andrew J.	-	-	2%	16%	40%	34%	8%
11	HUANG Ethan F.	-	2%	13%	33%	36%	15%
12	DU Gavin J.	-	5%	21%	37%	29%	8%
13	XU William	-	2%	13%	32%	37%	15%
14	KIM Alexander M.	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	13%
15	GIANETTO Ethan K.	2%	14%	35%	34%	14%	2%
16	BANG Hyeonjin	4%	20%	34%	29%	11%	2%
17	MAGUIRE Matthew V.	-	3%	18%	37%	32%	10%
18	YANG Duncan	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
19	CONINE Tanner C.	-	-	9%	33%	42%	16%
20	JUNG Junhwan	-	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
21	ZHOU Aeres Z.	-	1%	10%	46%	35%	7%
22	MCCARTHY Gabriel	1%	9%	28%	36%	21%	4%
23	WANG Nicolas	-	1%	11%	38%	36%	12%	1%
24	CHOI Silas	-	5%	21%	37%	29%	8%
25	WANG Andy	22%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-
26	CROUSE Beric (Behr) O.	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-
27	PAN Alex	26%	47%	22%	4%	-	-
28	DURAN Ivan	-	5%	32%	41%	18%	3%
29	CADAMBE Rishi	26%	46%	24%	4%	-	-	-
30	BONSELL Vance	2%	15%	36%	33%	12%	2%
31	NGUYEN Andrew	2%	15%	39%	32%	10%	1%
32	XU Adler	55%	39%	5%	-	-	-
33	YE Joshua	53%	40%	7%	-	-	-
34	YANG Ethan	9%	31%	37%	18%	4%	-
35	ALEMAN Benjamin	7%	43%	41%	8%	1%	-
36	LIU Mingyang Ryan	19%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
37	BRADFORD Tucker	23%	42%	26%	8%	1%	-
38	ZHU Charlie	33%	46%	18%	3%	-	-
39	HYUNGJUN lee	8%	31%	38%	19%	3%	-	-
40	LI Matthew	17%	44%	32%	6%	-	-	-
41	CHENG Xiao	14%	44%	37%	5%	-	-
42	YU Thomas	29%	45%	21%	4%	-	-
43	ZHANG Tianran	29%	58%	12%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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