AFM Super Regional SYC/RJCC/ROC Div1A/Vet

Junior Women's Foil

Friday, October 25, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Santa Clara Convention Center - Santa Clara, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SUN Chloe	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
2	MANIKTALA Prisha	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	18%
3	SAIFEE Lamya	-	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	17%
3	LIU Samantha	-	-	4%	17%	37%	32%	9%
5	BAE Yooju	-	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	17%
6	RAO Sonia D.	-	1%	7%	22%	36%	27%	8%
7	HSU Kaylin	-	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
8	VO Bao-Vy	-	-	2%	15%	39%	35%	9%
9	MU Allison	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	27%
10	CUI alivia	-	3%	18%	40%	30%	8%	1%
11	HOBSON Ava	-	-	4%	18%	37%	31%	9%
12	LIU Ariana	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	4%	-
13	KIM Sydney	-	2%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%
14	TAO Ann	-	2%	17%	40%	31%	9%	1%
15	LI Yuhe	-	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%
16	LENK Sophie	-	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%
17	SWANSON Alexa	-	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	22%
18	LIPKOVITZ Rivka	-	-	2%	12%	36%	37%	13%
19	WU Nicole Moxuan	2%	16%	38%	33%	10%	1%
20	REN Kayley	-	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	27%
21	SAH Madeleine	3%	22%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-
22	WYNN Kylie	-	-	3%	19%	40%	30%	7%
23	GUAN Adeline	-	1%	9%	26%	36%	22%	5%
24	HO Addison	-	2%	13%	36%	40%	9%
25	HOVAGHIMIAN Fira	2%	14%	33%	34%	14%	2%
26	BROWN Lola	-	-	2%	12%	35%	38%	13%
27	PENG Charlotte	1%	6%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
28	THERON Zoe	16%	42%	31%	9%	1%	-
29	HUGHES Olivia	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
30	TIKHONOVA Vasilisa	10%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
31	TIKHONOVA Sofia	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
32	LEVESQUE Brielle	2%	14%	37%	35%	11%	1%
33	KIM Lauren	14%	36%	33%	13%	2%	-	-
34	WU Chingfei Amber	6%	26%	38%	23%	6%	1%
35	CHANG Janelle	5%	27%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
36	QURESHI Zoya	38%	44%	15%	2%	-	-	-
37	ZHANG Lian	2%	14%	32%	32%	15%	4%	-
38	MCKAY Teresa	12%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-
39	HAN Gian	8%	29%	37%	20%	5%	1%	-
40	GOEL Riyana	15%	37%	33%	13%	3%	-	-
41	SHUSTA Lily	9%	30%	37%	19%	5%	-	-
42	LUCAS Ava	26%	48%	23%	4%	-	-	-
43	HSIAO Ariya	30%	42%	22%	5%	1%	-	-
44	MATTUPALLI Ashwika	33%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
45	KRAATZ Kira	20%	46%	28%	6%	-	-	-
46	LAY Apollonia	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-
47	HUGHES Bailey	33%	46%	18%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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