AFM Super Regional SYC/RJCC/ROC Div1A/Vet

Div I-A Women's Foil

Saturday, October 26, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Santa Clara Convention Center - Santa Clara, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SUN Chloe	-	-	1%	14%	50%	35%
2	RANDOLPH Piper	-	-	-	1%	12%	47%	39%
3	LEE Ji Ahn	-	-	-	2%	13%	39%	45%
3	DENG Melissa	-	-	5%	22%	43%	30%
5	CHEN Cynthia	-	-	-	2%	16%	50%	33%
6	JIA Amy	-	-	-	2%	14%	44%	40%
7	MANIKTALA Prisha	-	2%	12%	34%	38%	14%
8	SWANSON Alexa	-	-	3%	15%	32%	35%	15%
9	LENK Sophie	-	2%	13%	33%	35%	16%	2%
10	KIM Sydney	-	3%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%
11	HOVAGHIMIAN Fira	2%	18%	39%	31%	9%	1%	-
12	WYNN Kylie	-	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
13	GUAN Adeline	-	3%	21%	43%	28%	5%	-
14	REN Kayley	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	13%
15	TORRES JIMENA	-	-	1%	7%	28%	45%	20%
16	PENG Serena	-	1%	13%	38%	38%	10%	1%
17	MU Allison	-	1%	8%	29%	41%	19%	2%
18	LEE Michelle S.	-	-	5%	19%	37%	31%	7%
19	BROWN Lola	-	2%	12%	29%	34%	18%	4%
20	BHATT Morgane	-	-	1%	12%	48%	40%
21	OH Ceana	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	23%
21	CHANG Janelle	42%	44%	12%	1%	-	-
23	PENG Charlotte	5%	24%	38%	25%	7%	1%
24	RAO Sonia D.	-	5%	25%	40%	24%	5%
25	YAN Noelle	1%	13%	40%	38%	8%	1%
26	ZHANG Ivy	-	1%	9%	28%	38%	21%	3%
27	CHOI Kailyn	1%	10%	33%	38%	16%	2%	-
28	XIE Su	2%	16%	36%	33%	12%	2%
29	LEVESQUE Brielle	3%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%
30	HOBSON Ava	-	7%	28%	39%	22%	4%
31	ZONG Melody	9%	30%	35%	20%	6%	1%	-
32	HUGHES Olivia	16%	52%	27%	5%	-	-	-
33	CUI alivia	1%	13%	42%	34%	10%	1%	-
34	YONG Rosalind	-	7%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-
35	DESAI Esha	5%	22%	36%	26%	9%	2%	-
36	LUH Mia P.	1%	14%	42%	35%	7%	-
37	MATTUPALLI Ashwika	40%	41%	16%	3%	-	-
38	SHUSTA Lily	32%	48%	18%	2%	-	-
39	DING Madison	71%	26%	3%	-	-	-	-
40	TIKHONOVA Vasilisa	23%	47%	24%	5%	-	-
41	TIKHONOVA Sofia	32%	48%	18%	2%	-	-
42	KRAATZ Kira	61%	34%	5%	-	-	-	-
43	TAI Taphanie	87%	13%	1%	-	-	-	-
44	KANDL-ZHANG Lea	3%	39%	40%	16%	3%	-	-
45	WANG Celine S.	3%	29%	42%	22%	4%	-	-
46	GOEL Riyana	24%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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