AFM Super Regional SYC/RJCC/ROC Div1A/Vet

Div I-A Women's Saber

Saturday, October 26, 2024 at 10:30 AM

Santa Clara Convention Center - Santa Clara, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZEGERS Anneke E.	-	-	-	-	-	11%	88%
2	KER Grace	-	-	-	1%	7%	32%	60%
3	KANG Ellie	-	-	3%	18%	42%	35%	2%
3	YUEN Nicole	-	3%	17%	35%	31%	11%	1%
5	CHEN Elaine	-	5%	22%	39%	27%	6%	< 1%
6	DIECK Miranda P.	1%	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
7	XIONG Haojiao	-	-	1%	6%	25%	42%	26%
8	GOLOVITSER Maya	-	3%	14%	32%	36%	15%
9	LIU Sydney	-	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	23%
10	DANG Kelia	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	23%
11	KALKINA Yelena	-	-	-	-	4%	30%	66%
12	MAO Elsa	8%	30%	39%	19%	4%	-	-
13	DUDNICK Morgan	-	3%	15%	34%	33%	13%	1%
14	TAN Adelyn	-	-	4%	18%	37%	31%	9%
15	MANN Sophia J.	-	-	2%	12%	36%	42%	8%
16	WONG Natalie	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
17	RAGHURAMAN Anishka	1%	8%	26%	36%	23%	6%
18	RAMIREZ Mirka A.	-	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%
19	HAN Emma	2%	12%	31%	34%	18%	3%
20	RAMOS Katrione Dominae	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
21	TENG Christine Renmei	-	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
22	WANG Jiayi	-	1%	16%	40%	34%	9%	-
23	ZHAI AMY	2%	17%	37%	31%	11%	1%	-
24	NING Lynn	-	5%	33%	41%	18%	3%	-
25	GOSAVI Aabolee	3%	17%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
26	LIN Annika	1%	10%	27%	35%	21%	5%	-
27	KIM Satie	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
28	MAO anna	7%	27%	36%	23%	7%	1%
29	HUGHES-WILLIAMS Adelayde	-	4%	20%	38%	29%	8%	-
30	STONE Coral	-	2%	15%	38%	34%	10%	-
31	SENGUPTA Jia	5%	21%	36%	27%	10%	1%
32	CAI Veronica	11%	37%	36%	14%	3%	-	-
33	TONG Laurie	1%	16%	36%	32%	13%	2%	-
34	FENG Alicia G.	2%	15%	32%	33%	15%	3%
35	LEI Zitong (Meya)	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	14%
36	SNOAD Indy	28%	41%	23%	6%	1%	-
37	LI Miranda	23%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-
38	XIE Shirley	45%	45%	9%	1%	-	-	-
39	DUONG Esther	-	2%	13%	31%	35%	17%	2%
40	NAIR Supriya	1%	17%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-
41	OU Yixuan	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%	-
42	BORTAI Eliza	18%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
43	ASPIRAS Avery	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-	-
44	BENT Sarah	22%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
44	PANCHAL Arya	77%	21%	2%	-	-	-	-
46	KIRBY Skye	28%	41%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
47	OOI Ming Qin	32%	53%	14%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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