SoCal Scholastic League Individual Epee/Saber #1

High School Women's Epee

Sunday, November 3, 2024 at 7:15 AM

Brentwood High School - Los Angeles, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	MUN Brianna K.	-	-	-	3%	26%	70%
2	MAI Mailan	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
3	KANE Chloe	-	2%	15%	44%	39%
4	LAY Apollonia	-	3%	25%	55%	17%
5	DRYSDALE Lita	-	-	12%	64%	24%
6	HASIM Eurietta	-	1%	11%	39%	48%
6	CHEONG Chloe	-	6%	27%	44%	22%
8	SCANLAN Alina Nev	4%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%
9	TSUI Zoe	-	9%	47%	37%	7%	-
10	GAGARING Genia	1%	9%	39%	42%	10%
11	UNGUREAN Zara	-	8%	32%	43%	16%
12	RIVERA Natalia	-	2%	17%	43%	34%	4%
13	SHETTY Nandita	5%	34%	42%	16%	2%
14	DANKO Siena	4%	23%	40%	27%	6%
15	LUCENA Yaretzi	19%	43%	29%	8%	1%
16	BROWN Leah	5%	30%	47%	17%	2%
17	PEI Audrey	-	-	4%	26%	59%	11%
18	STOMMEL-DIAZ Charly	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
19	CIOBANU Alexia	-	-	-	5%	29%	65%
20	CHENG Yiwen	3%	22%	42%	28%	5%
21	AMIR Olivia	3%	26%	50%	19%	2%
22	PEDERSEN Haley	-	1%	9%	38%	52%
23	TEDFORD Bridget	-	2%	14%	34%	37%	12%
24	BARDAKOS Katherine	2%	18%	41%	32%	6%
25	GALLUP Elise	30%	43%	22%	5%	-
26	BUCASAS Lia	13%	36%	36%	14%	2%	-
27	CHENG Liwen	16%	44%	34%	6%	-	-
28	DASHEVSKY Jordan	11%	36%	38%	14%	1%	-
29	IACCINO Lauren	3%	26%	44%	23%	4%
30	MONTES Isabela	61%	34%	5%	-	-
31	STEMPEL Taylor	17%	47%	30%	5%	-
32	SUAREZ Grace	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
33	TAYLOR Ashlyn	-	1%	12%	41%	46%
34	OGLESBY-HALL Quinn	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
35	SALAZAR Alanis	-	4%	23%	45%	25%	3%
36	KENNEDY Skyler	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%
37	GORDON Chloe	4%	21%	41%	29%	6%
38	MILLINER Cassidy	50%	39%	10%	1%	-
39	SARKAR Kayla	2%	16%	38%	35%	9%
40	PINSON Charlee	37%	46%	15%	2%	-	-
41	KIM Audrey	45%	42%	12%	1%	-
41	SHIN Lana	25%	45%	25%	5%	-
43	VILLALTA Olivia	17%	39%	32%	11%	1%	-
43	LUCAS Athena	2%	21%	43%	28%	6%	-
45	TEGTMEYER Sophia	14%	53%	29%	3%	-
46	ZHOU Ivy	65%	30%	5%	-	-
46	NAGUIT Alexandria	8%	35%	40%	16%	2%
48	FOUSE LAWRENCE Asha	30%	50%	17%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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