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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YORK Joseph	-	-	-	4%	23%	45%	27%
2	MARKOV Dmitry	-	-	1%	8%	34%	57%
3	BABBITT Phoenix	1%	12%	34%	37%	15%	1%
3	KOENIGSKNECHT Julian	-	7%	40%	40%	12%	1%
5	EDWARDS Tim	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
6	TURNER Joshua	-	2%	21%	45%	27%	4%
7	BONILHA-VAN'T HOF Rafael	-	2%	14%	36%	37%	11%
8	DREWRY William	-	1%	10%	38%	42%	9%
9	BETTS Jr Anthony P.	-	-	1%	14%	45%	40%
10	SAYLER Gordon	-	2%	16%	48%	29%	5%
11	STAUBITZ Marc	3%	18%	38%	31%	10%	1%
12	VIDALE Carter	-	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
13	SHELLABARGER Stephen	-	8%	40%	38%	13%	1%
14	BATES Madison	30%	43%	22%	5%	-	-
15	BRETHAUER Adah	13%	44%	33%	9%	1%	-
16	BEDWORTH Paige	-	-	5%	21%	41%	30%	3%
17	SCARAMUZZA Gian F.	-	3%	15%	36%	33%	12%	1%
18	ASBY Will	-	-	6%	29%	46%	19%
19	DERRINGER Drew	20%	50%	25%	5%	-	-
20	THOMPSON Conner	42%	44%	12%	1%	-	-
21	LUGO Emmanuel	7%	34%	38%	17%	4%	-	-
22	ROBERTSON Nolan	2%	13%	31%	35%	17%	2%
23	BARRETT John	33%	44%	19%	3%	-	-
24	BROCK Maya	-	8%	43%	40%	7%	-
25	WALSH Logan	-	3%	13%	30%	33%	17%	3%
26	PLANAS Ethan	2%	17%	39%	31%	10%	1%	-
27	MAREDIA Faiz	1%	10%	28%	36%	20%	4%
28	SKAGGS Jacob	18%	48%	28%	6%	-	-
29	WARD Benjamin	-	6%	26%	39%	24%	5%
30	PHOENIX Bianca	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
31	LLOYD aarion	2%	23%	43%	26%	5%	-
32	DREWRY Alexandra	34%	47%	17%	2%	-	-
33	SCHUTZ Frederik	-	5%	29%	52%	13%	1%
34	SAYLER Griffin	55%	39%	6%	-	-	-
35	GORDON Paige	5%	24%	39%	25%	6%	-
36	BILLINGSLEA Owen	2%	15%	40%	37%	6%	-
37	DURR Anna	36%	42%	18%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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