WFencing Cleveland Rocks RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Sunday, November 3, 2024 at 1:00 PM

Woodling Gymnasium - Cleveland State University - Cleveland, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CULLIVAN Sienna	-	-	-	1%	18%	81%
2	LEO Jenna	-	4%	23%	40%	27%	6%
3	HU Sophie	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
3	KOU Elisha	-	-	-	1%	6%	30%	64%
5	BOIKE Lucille	-	-	4%	27%	69%
6	ZHANG Caroline	1%	7%	28%	41%	20%	3%
7	FRASER Morgan	-	-	1%	10%	39%	50%
8	RIVERA Leahy	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	24%
9	HUANG Natalie	-	-	3%	17%	42%	37%
10	KUANG Bella	-	4%	19%	39%	31%	8%
11	SALMI-BYDALEK Ada	-	2%	11%	32%	42%	14%
12	KASHUBA Mila	5%	24%	39%	26%	6%	-
13	ZHANG Selina	-	2%	13%	36%	39%	11%
14	YANG Hanli	-	2%	14%	35%	36%	13%
15	SHI Micah	8%	29%	37%	20%	4%	-
16	XU Charlene	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%	1%
17	HUANG Gabrielle	5%	24%	42%	26%	3%
18	LEE Eun-Hae	1%	6%	21%	34%	28%	10%	1%
19	WANG Christina	-	6%	25%	40%	24%	5%
20	HUANG Emma	-	2%	9%	26%	37%	22%	3%
21	EDGAR Koko	26%	43%	25%	5%	-
22	GONG Maggie	7%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%	-
23	KIM Yuna	1%	8%	28%	40%	21%	1%
24	LIU Sophia	1%	10%	33%	37%	16%	2%
25	SUN Nicole	1%	13%	35%	35%	14%	2%
26	CULLIVAN Elise	9%	30%	37%	19%	4%	-
27	OWENS Genevieve	13%	33%	33%	17%	4%	-	-
28	ZHOU Jolena	3%	20%	41%	29%	7%	-
29	BELL Blake	9%	39%	37%	14%	2%	-
30	LIN Athena	13%	37%	35%	14%	2%	-
31	FANG Savannah	34%	45%	18%	3%	-	-
32	DHALIWAL Seerat	11%	39%	37%	11%	1%
33	SHUI Zola	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%	-
34	REDEMANN Reagan	8%	31%	41%	19%	2%
35	HUANG Rosalyn	24%	45%	25%	6%	-	-
36	ZHAO Victoria	7%	26%	37%	23%	6%	-
37	MILLER Sydney	27%	45%	23%	5%	-	-
38	KAGAN Natalie	3%	16%	32%	31%	15%	3%	-
39	LALONDE Beatrice	13%	35%	35%	15%	2%	-
40	YATES Annabelle	23%	46%	25%	6%	1%	-
41	CHAVEZ Beatrix	27%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-
42	EVOLA Ellie	57%	35%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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