F.A.P. Main Line Youth 12 and E and under Foil

E & Under Mixed Foil

Saturday, November 9, 2024 at 2:00 PM

Kaiserman JCC - philadelphia, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YANG David	10%	38%	40%	11%	1%	-
2	HECHT Joel	-	-	3%	15%	37%	37%	8%
3	KOVACS Harrison	-	4%	21%	39%	29%	8%	-
3	BLACK Henry	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	-
5	ZHANG Julian	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	16%
6	EPSTEIN Naomi	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	16%
6	POLEPALLI Vinil	1%	8%	23%	35%	26%	8%
8	MCCLEMENTS Finnley	1%	13%	36%	34%	13%	2%
9	KO Darby	26%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-
10	CHEN Christopher	1%	8%	31%	41%	18%	1%
11	SIELSKI Evan	3%	16%	35%	33%	12%	1%
12	HOUSE Edward	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
13	RATHMAN Bryce	-	2%	13%	37%	37%	11%
14	GALVAN Omar	17%	39%	32%	10%	1%	-
15	KELLER JohnChristopher	5%	20%	33%	27%	12%	3%	-
16	MOGCK Evan	-	5%	21%	37%	28%	8%
17	CROWE Charles	4%	22%	38%	27%	9%	1%
18	JOHNSON Julia	44%	41%	13%	2%	-	-
19	YUE Shannon	2%	20%	39%	30%	9%	1%
20	TAN Zi	25%	44%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
21	KEEYS Nurah	-	6%	26%	44%	20%	3%	-
22	ZHAO Rui	-	-	4%	17%	36%	35%	8%
23	CHAN na na	1%	9%	30%	37%	20%	4%
24	WANG Yulia	-	5%	21%	36%	29%	8%
25	BUCAK Devin	1%	11%	31%	36%	17%	3%
26	MACHO Dario	-	4%	21%	42%	28%	5%
27	SHRAMKO Nathaniel	1%	9%	29%	36%	20%	4%
28	PRIVITERA Dino	1%	8%	26%	37%	22%	5%	-
29	SPECTER Luka	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%
30	CIVAN Aviva	2%	11%	30%	35%	19%	4%
31	BUCKLEY Blaize	23%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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