Duel in Dallas ROC/RJCC/RYC

Div II Men's Foil

Saturday, November 16, 2024 at 8:30 AM

Dallas Market Hall **MAIN** - Dallas, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KIM Brian	-	-	-	-	4%	26%	70%
2	JOHNSON Chance	-	-	4%	20%	44%	32%
3	MCKINLEY Luke	-	-	4%	16%	34%	35%	11%
3	ELKOUSY Zain al Din	-	-	3%	18%	44%	34%
5	CHEZ Nolan	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	20%
6	CLARK Benjamin	-	4%	24%	42%	25%	5%
7	MCKEE Calvin	-	1%	8%	30%	43%	17%
8	CHENG Mason	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%	-
9	VAN SCOYK Aeron I.	-	-	1%	5%	20%	42%	33%
10	DAI Christopher	-	1%	8%	26%	38%	24%	3%
11	FLYNT Hayden	-	2%	16%	40%	33%	8%
12	POPOKH Luca	3%	16%	32%	31%	14%	3%	-
13	CHEN Kelton	1%	9%	32%	39%	17%	2%
14	WONG Galston	-	2%	14%	35%	36%	12%
15	LUK Trusten	3%	14%	30%	32%	17%	4%	-
16	CHIANG Aiden	9%	39%	37%	13%	2%	-
17	WARMERDAM Joseph	5%	26%	38%	24%	6%	1%	-
18	SENISCH Isaac	1%	11%	39%	36%	12%	1%
19	CHAN Kyle Si Tin	47%	43%	9%	1%	-	-
20	WOODALL Ian L.	-	1%	13%	37%	37%	11%
21	DIEP Daniel	-	3%	15%	35%	34%	12%	1%
22	ROSE Zavier	6%	22%	35%	26%	10%	2%	-
23	DE BARROS CONTI Thibaut	-	6%	27%	40%	22%	4%
24	RODRIGUEZ Alejandro	24%	47%	23%	5%	-	-
25	DAI Calvin	36%	45%	16%	2%	-	-
26	WILSON Bryan	2%	15%	36%	34%	12%	2%
27	ORDUNO Edgar	3%	16%	31%	31%	15%	4%	-
28	MILLER Wayland	26%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
29	LAM Kirin	25%	51%	21%	3%	-	-
30	COWARD Daniel	57%	35%	7%	1%	-	-
31	MCCOY Camden	9%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
32	CHAN Brian	2%	20%	40%	29%	8%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.