GRAFA RYC\RJCC\ROC- Third Coast Cup

Div I-A Men's Foil

Friday, November 22, 2024 at 4:00 PM

MSA Fieldhouse - Grand Rapids, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SLUSHER Gideon	-	1%	10%	34%	40%	15%	-
2	TAQI Ahmad F.	-	-	-	-	8%	92%
3	WOJCIECHOWSKI Matthew N.	-	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
3	HAMILTON Brock B.	-	-	3%	18%	43%	34%	2%
5	GUTH Joseph	-	-	4%	21%	41%	29%	5%
6	GRIFFIN John O.	-	-	-	-	-	11%	88%
7	MCISAAC Finn	-	-	5%	33%	58%	4%
8	NOWAK Joseph A.	-	-	5%	23%	39%	27%	5%
9	VANOYEN Dominick	-	-	1%	9%	28%	41%	21%
10	LEYVA MATOS Danyer	-	-	1%	5%	20%	42%	33%
11	ASHIDA Tomoaki	-	-	2%	15%	37%	37%	9%
12	KUE Temujin	-	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
13	ROLDAN-LEVCHENKO Nikita I.	-	1%	6%	24%	38%	26%	6%
14	ARATA Connor	-	5%	26%	51%	17%	-
15	BERSCHEID Arthur	1%	10%	28%	34%	21%	6%	1%
16	ARAVINDAKSHA Ayaan	1%	15%	39%	32%	11%	1%	-
17	SHEVCHENKO Kostiantyn	-	1%	6%	20%	34%	29%	10%
18	MASSIMINO Andrew	-	-	3%	17%	36%	33%	11%
19	IRVINE Brody	-	1%	13%	37%	36%	12%	1%
20	HEYBOER Jason	-	1%	10%	34%	38%	15%	2%
21	FANG Haoyu	-	2%	10%	26%	34%	22%	5%
22	POWELL Sean	1%	17%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
23	TANG xianchi	-	6%	35%	40%	16%	2%	-
24	KNIBBE Nathan	-	6%	25%	38%	24%	7%	1%
25	SMITH Erick	-	3%	19%	37%	30%	10%	1%
26	KAGAN Noah	7%	63%	26%	4%	-	-	-
27	DECKER Evan M.	1%	7%	22%	34%	26%	9%	1%
28	REAUME Nate	19%	44%	31%	6%	-	-
29	TOWNE Benjamin	5%	34%	39%	18%	4%	-	-
30	STORER Alexander	-	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%
31	ZMUDA Aiden	21%	45%	29%	5%	-	-
32	KOLACKI Gabriel	28%	48%	20%	3%	-	-	-
33	WEINSTEIN Ethan	-	2%	18%	42%	31%	7%	-
34	HICKNER Gabe	77%	22%	2%	-	-	-	-
35	MICK Gabriel	50%	37%	11%	2%	-	-	-
36	MAYR Gregor	-	9%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
37	WILLIAMS Christopher R.	20%	45%	30%	5%	-	-
38	CRUZ Ben	7%	44%	39%	10%	1%	-	-
39	BENSCH Vincent	37%	46%	15%	2%	-	-	-
40	NEGGIE James	67%	28%	4%	-	-	-	-
41	TERPSTRA Clive	86%	13%	-	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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