GRAFA RYC\RJCC\ROC- Third Coast Cup

Div I-A Men's Saber

Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 12:00 PM

MSA Fieldhouse - Grand Rapids, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	JHAVERI Rajan	1%	15%	44%	31%	8%	1%
2	HERNANDEZ Stanton	-	-	2%	12%	39%	46%
3	SIDDIQUI Shayan	-	-	4%	22%	45%	28%
3	WANG Junyu	-	3%	17%	38%	33%	8%
5	WANG William M.	-	1%	9%	32%	42%	17%
5	LIN Patrick	1%	11%	31%	37%	18%	3%
7	KESSENS Keith J.	-	3%	18%	41%	33%	4%
8	BARROWS Hunter	4%	24%	40%	25%	6%	1%
9	FARIDI Imran	-	6%	24%	40%	25%	5%
10	CHENHE YuHan	-	2%	14%	36%	37%	11%
11	KOTVALI Aneesh	5%	25%	41%	24%	5%	-
12	MYSIOREK Nathan	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
13	TURNER Benjamin	1%	11%	32%	37%	17%	2%
14	YUAN Kevin	-	-	2%	14%	41%	42%
15	PARKILA Lukas	1%	7%	25%	38%	25%	5%
16	HUA Michael	-	1%	14%	39%	35%	10%
17	HILL Quillan	1%	9%	30%	40%	19%	2%
18	NARUT Oscar	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
19	NEVEROVICH Vitaly V.	-	-	< 1%	4%	28%	68%
20	KANIA Alexander	1%	12%	34%	36%	15%	2%
21	ZHU Matthew	10%	36%	37%	15%	2%	-
22	PERRY Gwydion	3%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
23	RAMANI Ari	11%	38%	36%	13%	2%	-
24	NAFTALI Ori	38%	43%	16%	3%	-	-
25	MCGAFFEY Rowan	15%	51%	28%	5%	-	-
26	EDINBERG Azra	20%	40%	29%	10%	1%	-
27	RAVOOR Suvir	39%	42%	16%	3%	-	-
28	TWEMLOW Sacha	10%	36%	37%	15%	2%	-
28	RAVOOR Sahas	46%	40%	12%	2%	-	-
30	RIVERA Benjamin	63%	33%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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